Dealing with Myanmar now more challenging

Dealing with Myanmar is becoming more complicated for Bangladesh as the military of the neighbouring country is getting weaker in the face of strong resistance by the armed rebel groups that seized dozens of towns and hundreds of army posts in recent months, say experts.

For Bangladesh, the major dilemma lies in how it deals with the Arakan Army as Dhaka believes the Myanmar junta would help the repatriation of more than one million Rohingyas, they say.

The Arakan Army now controls a vast area of the Rakhine State bordering Bangladesh.

Security concerns for Dhaka are also deepening as conflicts in the border areas may force more Myanmar nationals to flee to Bangladesh.

International relations analysts suggest Bangladesh rethinks its Myanmar policy considering the fast-evolving situation in the neighbouring country that may witness many of its regions being controlled by rebel groups in the days to come.

"There are fears that Myanmar is moving towards further destabilisation. So,Bangladesh has much to be worried about," said Dr Obaidul Haque, associate professor of international relations at Dhaka University.

One of the reasons Bangladesh maintains relations with the Myanmar junta is Rohingya repatriation. It is time for Dhaka to make pragmatic decisions, he told this correspondent.

Myanmar's decades-old ethnic conflicts intensified since the military coup in February 2021. Political leaders have formed a parallel National Unity Government (NUG) and its armed fighters, called Peoples' Democratic Force (PDF), have joined the rebel forces to defeat the junta.

The US and other western countries strongly oppose the military junta and support the NUG. The US Congress enacted the BURMA Act to support Myanmar civilians.

On the other hand, China throws its weight behind the military junta. For keeping Myanmar's bordering states secure, China also maintains good ties with the ethnic rebel groups, including the Arakan Army.

"China does not want different armed groups to take control in Myanmar. It goes against China's trade and security interests," said Prof Sk Tawfique M Haque, director of the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance at North South University.

He said many think the Myanmar junta will fall, but it is very unlikely to happen because of the support it gets from China.

On the other hand, despite India's support for a federal democracy in Myanmar, it will not want instability in Myanmar considering its own security interests and connectivity projects, he added.

An unstable situation in Myanmar has serious security implications for Bangladesh.

"What will happen if more people from Myanmar flee to Bangladesh?" Obaidul Haque said.

Bangladesh faces the dilemma of how to deal with the Arakan Army if the Myanmar junta loses control in Rakhine State or in Naypyidaw, he said.

"Will the Arakan Army declare independence? How will Bangladesh react to it? If Myanmar junta falls, which ethnic groups would take control of the entire country? Will the ethnic groups recognise the NUG? Will the NUG be able to manage the other ethnic rebel groups? All these issues are cause for concern for Bangladesh," said the DU teacher.

He said it is high time Bangladesh sees the bigger picture.

"I think there is a strong need for a national security council that would study the Myanmar affairs and provide policy inputs. We should have political consensus about it. There should also be discussions among the academia, security experts and think tanks," said Obaidul.

Foreign Minister Hasan Hamud said Dhaka keeps contact with the Myanmar junta for Rohingya repatriation, but also understands that the current situation in the neighbouring country is not favourable for repatriation.

"We are closely watching the Myanmar situation," he told journalists last week.