For the last three years, Petrobangla has been making a rosy projection of gas supply increase and even announcing "discovery" of new oil and gas in decades-old fields but in reality these are not materialising.
For instance, Petrobangla in 2010 projected an increase of 1,085 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) gas by June 2013. This quantity is roughly half the gas now being supplied across the country. If such a supply could be ensured, the demand for gas would have been met fully, overcoming the existing shortfall.
Then in 2011, Petrobangla scaled up its projection and said that by June 2013, as much as 1920 mmcfd gas would be added. More than half of it would be supplied by the international oil companies, a quarter by importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the rest by the national gas fields.
If this had materialised, Bangladesh could have slashed oil import cost, increase cheaper power and fertiliser production, and attract huge investment.
But in 2012, Petrobangla suddenly scaled down its projection by showing addition of 1,365 mmcfd new gas by June 2013. This time it just reduced foreign companies' gas production.
Then in August last year, Petrobangla revised the projection further. By this time, it gave up the venture to import LNG, and any new supplies from foreign oil companies. Instead, the Petrobangla chief said that by December 2013, there would be 550 mmcfd gas.
Talking to The Daily Star last week, Petrobangla chairman Hossain Monsur, who is enjoying his contract for the third term now, gave a breakdown that showed a total new addition of 430 mmcfd.
Experts now contradict the chairman's claims, saying that by December this year, the government would be able to add 250 mmcfd gas at best while it is practical to expect a maximum of 100 mmcfd gas increase.
“Since I made the forecast, 100 mmcfd gas has already been added to the national network,” said Hossain Monsur, referring to gas production from three fields of Titas, Srikail and Fenchuganj.
In reality, production of gas from these three fields came a few months back with the quantity being half of what the chairman had claimed.
Hossain Monsur also claimed that in June, three gas wells (Titas- 18, Srikail-3 and Titas-20) will produce between 95 and 115 mmcfd gas. In July, another 75 mmcfd will be produced from Bakhrabad and Fenchuganj fields. In December, another 140 mmcfd will be produced from five wells in Titas, Begumganj, Fenchuganj and Kailashtila.
But experts rule out his forecast. “In June only Titas-18 would be able to produce 25 mmcfd gas. Russian company Gazprom is dealing with Srikail-3 and Titas-20. But it is under-performing,” said an official of a national gas field.
Bapex's work programme is progressing at a pace where it can add a maximum of 100 mmcfd gas.
“Petrobangla relied on an unsolicited contract with Russian company Gazprom to implement a fast track development of 10 wells by December, and also on Bapex's drilling programmes,” he said.
But till now, Gazprom has drilled two wells in Srikail and Titas, and left them incomplete, as the company has not brought all necessary equipment to start production. The company is importing the equipment. “At this rate, even if it can bring in the equipment by June-July, we don't see how it would be able to complete drilling four wells this year,” the source noted.
Hossain Monsur also expressed his unhappiness with Gazprom. “Gazprom is not working at the pace Petrobangla had hoped. The Russian company was supposed to mobilise all equipment by June 15 to drill 10 wells. But their two rigs are sitting idle for one and a half months (as it did not bring in other tools),” he said.
Fake discoveries
In May last year, through just conducting three-dimensional (3D) seismic surveys, Petrobangla "discovered" oil in decades-old fields of Kailashtila and Haripur fields. While finding some recoverable oil in Kailashtila was something new, finding it in Haripur was a news disclosed twice after three decades.
Then again, experts totally reject discovery claims made on the basis of 3D survey. “Unless you produce the real thing, it's not a discovery. There are instances where seismic survey's indications were proven wrong.
The Petrobangla chairman had, however, taken initiatives to produce oil from Kailashtila, “We had plans to bring an oil well into operation within this year. But this plan has been delayed due to bureaucratic bottlenecks and difficulties with land requisition.”
Earlier in September 2011, at a press conference, he announced "discovery" of an additional one trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas in the decades-old field of Rashidpur.
Experts argue that one cannot discover anything in an existing field, but "appraise" the field's reserve by periodically studying the field's structure. This is how US company Chevron's Bibiyana gas field's initial recoverable reserve of 2.4 tcf had doubled. Chevron never announced new discovery while doubling its reserve.
But the biggest such claim was made by the Bapex chief who went on record to the media in 2010 saying that on the basis of seismic survey, the company had found gas field in Sunamganj-Netrakona having the potential reserve of 2 to 3 tcf.
Late last year, when Bapex finally drilled an exploratory well there, it found nothing but sand and water.
Since the present government took over, it succeeded in raising gas supply by 500 mmcfd. This increase has remained largely unfelt, as there has been a gas deficit of the same quantity.