Iran’s options for retaliation are limited

Israel's strikes on archfoe Iran exposed severe weaknesses for Tehran that have hampered its ability to respond militarily, analysts said.

Israel said it hit 100 targets, including Iranian nuclear and military sites in the attacks, killing senior figures, among them the armed forces' chief and top nuclear scientists.

Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Israel it faces a "bitter and painful" fate over the attacks, but analysts say the Islamic republic's options are limited.

"This is an intelligence defeat of existential proportions for the Islamic Republic," said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG) think tank.

"It exposes the vital vulnerability of the regime's military and security apparatus and its key infrastructures -- including nuclear -- as well as its top political and military leadership," he told AFP.

"All this is meant, inter alia, to cripple Tehran's command and counter-strike capacities."

With the strikes, Israel has once again demonstrated that it is the pre-eminent military and intelligence power in the Middle East, and it does not depend on its allies.

Analysts say the overnight operation has the hallmarks of months or even years of preparation.

Iran is now left counting its far-reaching wounds. Images from across Tehran show apartment blocks hit, it seems, in specific rooms, suggesting the pinpoint targeting of individuals, likely through tracking cellphones. Iran has lost its top three active-duty commanders, as well as a leading voice in nuclear talks, overnight, but as the dust clears, it may emerge that more have been hit, and the survivors will likely be concerned they, too, could still be targeted.

A raid by Israel in October took out a large tranche of Iran's air defences. Israel's military said yesterday that it had destroyed dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers in strikes by fighter jets on aerial defence arrays in western Iran.

In the days ahead, Israel's superior intelligence apparatus will search for targets of opportunity - commanders and equipment changing location, or the movement of materiel to facilitate a response – and continue to strike.

Such a wide-ranging assault was possible only because Hezbollah -- Iran's second-strike capability if their nuclear apparatus was hit -- had been dismantled over a ruthless but effective months-long campaign last summer.

The risks remain high. Iran could now try to race for the nuclear bomb. But its faltering defences and clear, humiliating infiltration by Israel's intelligence make that a long shot. Rushing to build a nuclear weapon is no simple task, especially under fire, with your key leadership at risk of pinpoint strikes.

Israel has previously carried out attacks in the Islamic republic, including against military targets in October last year.

But Friday's attacks were unprecedented.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned his country's military operation would "continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat".

Clement Therme, of the Sorbonne University, said that "to retaliate, the regime seems to be in a bind".

"Either it targets US bases in the region and jeopardises its future, or it targets Israel, but we see that its military capabilities are limited," he said.

The Israeli military said Iran launched around 100 drones against it, but its air defences intercepted "most" of them outside Israeli territory. Iran denied it launched any drones.

There is another victim of the overnight barrage: the Trump administration's standing as a geopolitical power.

There may be suggestions from Trump advocates in the hours ahead that the Israeli assault was part of a wider master plan to weaken Iran ahead of more diplomacy. But, in reality, a simpler truth is revealed: Israel had no trust in the United States to implement a deal with Iran that would remove its nuclear ambitions.

Despite public pleading by US President Donald Trump for it to hold off, Israel went ahead with the most significant attack on Iran since its war with Iraq in the 1980s. Israel neither cared for nor feared Trump's response, and is apparently prepared to risk fighting on without US support.

It also shows that Israel is confident enough that Iran does not have the muscle to pose a threat to Israel, even without its allies' backing.