No cheers next year

Instead of cheers and hopeful expectations, the New Year can promise only economic hardship and uncertainty. And the fear is that if the turmoil continues, which looks like a reality after the one-sided election of January 5, the GDP may dip to a low never seen before.
The unprecedented political violence and blockades have already badly jolted all the sectors. Take the service sector, for one.
With 54 percent contribution to the economy, the service sector is on the verge of ruination. Unfortunately, this is not a sector of which full capture of data is possible. But transport is one definable area with 11 percent contribution which has collapsed.  
At this moment, agriculture may give a deceptive picture. This is because we have just passed through the aman season when crops need little of inputs and the weather was good.
But Boro season is coming and it is heavily dependent on fertilizer and irrigation. Movement of fertilizer is disrupted and so is diesel.
The dent in Boro paddy, the major crop, will see agriculture in the red.
Poultry and fisheries, two major subsectors, are reeling from lack of feed and market.  
Retail and distribution that occupies a big 14 percent of GDP is today in a shambles. With transport system gone haywire, companies cannot move goods. Buyers are shy. Latest data are not available, but many fear it is already in the red.
The banking sector is hit below the belt. Banks see no demand for credit, the basic lifeline for the financial system. Previous loans are turning bad.
After many years of booming business, many top banks already gaze at the bottom line dipping sharply.
Banks may have an insignificant share of 2 percent of GDP, but they virtually support the whole economic chain. If the banking system turns wobbly, the whole economic chain will collapse.
Previously, the World Bank had identified a few areas of risk in the economy. Except one – a global depression – all other risks – have heightened beyond imagination, a Bank top economist said. Its previous assessment was that the state-owned banks that account for 25 percent of the banking system are vulnerable. But now the contagion has spread to private banks too.
Although exports are surging by 18 percent, the garment sector is open to impending risks of GSP cancellation in June next year because few compliance issues have been addressed.
Manpower sector is also collapsing with remittance flow going in the negative by 8 percent. The current political turmoil has only dented the workers' going abroad further.
And Industry, with 19 percent contribution to GDP, is hit from all sides. It can neither get raw materials nor distribute its products.
The January 5 election is unlikely to have any calming effect on the political situation. And if it lingers any longer, the economy's backbone will be broken beyond repair.
And that is the gloom that looms over the New Year .