Will Trump and Putin be friends?

In a move that was bound to raise the mercury a couple of notches, outgoing President Obama decided to expel 35 Russian embassy staff, close off two compounds and initiate sanctions on top intelligence chiefs. The steps taken by the president came as a surprise as the Obama administration had refused to disclose "facts" that the CIA claimed it had about Russian links to Wikileaks in the run up to the elections. Hence, the massive expulsions when they came took a lot of people by surprise. This is very much reminiscent of cold war tactics and certainly the expectation was that Russia would retaliate in kind. President Putin on the other hand has refused to reciprocate. This "response" or lack thereof was a carefully crafted response from the Kremlin. It points to portraying President Obama as a "bitter old man" who had tried to bring Putin to heel with sanctions over Ukraine and frustration over Russian intervention on Assad's side in Syria. Indeed, going by the Kremlin website statement "As it proceeds from international practice, Russia has reasons to respond in kind. Although we have the right to retaliate, we will not resort to irresponsible 'kitchen' diplomacy but will plan our further steps to restore Russian-US relations based on the policies of the Trump Administration."

What is even more interesting is that President-elect Trump has walked right into the Russian game-play with his twitter comment on last Friday saying "Great move on delay (by V. Putin)…I always knew he was very smart!" The latest tiff shows that Vladimir Putin is changing his game. There is a new man in the White House who has indicated that he intends to open a dialogue with his counterpart in Russia to lessen tensions around the world. And in that vein, refusal to retaliate goes out as an olive branch to the new White House administration saying yes, the Kremlin is open to talks. We will of course have to wait to see if that is at all possible. Trump has made clear his position on the nuclear deal on Iran, relations with China, etc. But as we are finding out, President Trump has already reversed his position on some campaign trail promises. It remains to be seen exactly how good the new president is at "making deals" with the Russians on contentious issues like Iran and equally important, the Syria question. 

This is still the honeymoon period in both Washington and Moscow. While we have lots of back patting going on in both capitals about a new beginning in relations, a break from the new low in Russo-US relations under the Obama administration, the proof of the pudding will be how the US deals with a resurgent Russia and China which, according to Jane's Defence Weekly recently set sail: "China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has for the first time deployed its Liaoning carrier group beyond the First Island Chain. The carrier group is thought to have commenced its transit into the West Pacific on  December 23 and passed through the Miyako Strait south of the Japanese island of Okinawa on December 25. The progress of Liaoning and her supporting escorts was monitored by a frigate and Lockheed Martin P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft of the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) as well as by Taiwanese assets. The PLAN ships sailed to the east of Taiwan and subsequently passed through the Bashi Channel to the north of the Philippines before heading west to port facilities on China's Hainan Island."

Russia is squarely aligned with China and China is on the move. While Trump has declared plans for a revamped military, what will be his approach if push comes to shove in the South China Sea? Will Trump still call Putin a "very smart man" or will Putin reciprocate if another battle front opens up somewhere else? Is Trump serious about reining in on what is allegedly, US backing for hard-line fighter groups in Syria, some of whom are widely suspected to be jihadist groups. Unfortunately, international relations are not exactly the same as the corporate world where companies can be made or broken through "deals". Geopolitics requires wading through complex conditions and "deals" often mean painstaking negotiations over months and years to conclude. Given President-elect Trump's statements of late, we will simply have to wait and see how good (or bad) he is going to be in foreign relations. 

That said, the world will simply have to wait for the next 100 days to see what the Trump presidency means for the rest of the world. We now have two very powerful men in two of the world's most important countries. However, as President Trump is finding out that despite his party controlling the Senate and the House, he will have to contend with dissenting voices on Russia from some of his party men. As pointed out by Senator John McCain (R-Arizona), "I agree with the President-elect that we need to get on [with] our lives – without having elections affected by any outside influence, especially Vladimir Putin, who is a thug and a murderer." McCain chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee which has scheduled a January 5 hearing to investigate foreign cyber threats. The hearing apparently is the first of several that will be taking place in the coming months to look into allegations of Russian involvement in cyber hackings. This is an area where President Trump and his fellow Republican members of Congress digress and it will be interesting to see how these proceedings go.

The writer is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.