The unsolved mystery

There has been a bizarre case of murder at the busy Kuala Lumpur Airport on February 13, 2017. Kim Jong-nam (46), estranged half-brother of North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un, was apparently killed by two female agents.

Surveillance video at the airport shows a person in white shirt coming up from behind Jong-nam in the crowded terminal, smearing his face with some liquid and quickly walking away. Jong-nam, feeling dizzy, went to the airport clinic and sought help. He died on the way to the hospital. All this happened within twenty minutes of the attack. Jong-nam, travelling under the pseudonym "Kim Chol", was supposed to catch a flight for Macau where he lived with his family.

Kim Jong-nam was the eldest son of Kim Jong-il, the late supreme leader of North Korea. Jong-il reportedly had two wives and three mistresses, and three sons and two daughters. The first mistress, Song Hye-rim, who died in 2002, was a film actress and mother of Jong-nam. Jong-il's second mistress Ko Yong-hui had two sons – Kim Jong-chul and Kim Jong-un. Kim Jong-un is the current leader of North Korea. Incidentally, the two brothers never met as they grew up separately.

Though Jong-nam was considered heir to Jong-il, it was a bizarre turn of fate that Jong-nam did not succeed his father. In 1998, Jong-nam was appointed to a senior position in the Ministry of Public Security – the stepping stone to succeed Jong-il. Fate turned against him when he was arrested at Tokyo airport in 2001 for travelling on a forged passport. Jong-nam fell out of favour of Jong-il, who was enraged at Jong-nam for embarrassing the Kim family. Besides, Jong-nam's liberal political beliefs questioning Stalinist policies and dynastic succession and call for reforms convinced Jong-il that Jong-nam had turned into a "capitalist". By 2003 it became clear that Jong-il was promoting the youngest son Jong-un to succeed him. And around that time Jong-nam went into exile and began living in Macau with his family apparently under Chinese protection. He also had a residence in Beijing. Jong-nam was close to his powerful uncle Jang Song-thaek, source of his finance and conduit to Beijing. Song-thaek was executed in December 2013 on orders from Jong-un. China protected Jong-nam and probably wanted to use him as replacement, in case the Jong-un regime collapsed.

So how was Jong-nam killed? After autopsy Malaysian Police confirmed that Jong-nam was killed by VX nerve agent. Police has identified eight North Koreans, including one diplomat – four had fled Malaysia, while four others were in Malaysia. Police has already arrested four persons – a Vietnamese woman named Doan Thi Huong (28), an Indonesian woman named Siti Aishah (25), a Malaysian man named Muhammad Farid Bin Jalaluddin (26) and a North Korean man named Ri Jong Chol (47). According to police, after the attack the two women washed their hands at the airport washroom and fled the scene. Both women said they believed they were taking part in a prank video. They have been charged with murder.

The crucial question facing the police is, how did VX get into Malaysia? Was it smuggled in through a diplomatic pouch (from North Korea)? Or was it made in Malaysia? VX is a deadly toxic substance and is banned by UN Resolution 687. It is classified as a weapon of mass destruction.

The incident has triggered angry reactions from Pyongyang and a diplomatic standoff with Kuala Lumpur about the identity of Jong-nam. Pyongyang said that the man who died was Kim Chol, the name on the diplomatic passport he was carrying. Malaysia, however, confirmed that it was Jong-nam who was the victim. Taking a stern step Malaysia recalled its ambassador to Pyongyang, while the North Korean Ambassador Kang Chol in Kuala Lumpur made atrocious remarks about the handling of the investigation. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak described the Ambassador's statement "uncalled for". Malaysian Foreign Minister Anifah Aman warned Kang Chol to stop lying or face expulsion. North Korea has demanded the dead body of Jong-nam, but Malaysian officials said it will be handed over to the next-of-kin after matching DNA samples of Jong-nam.

Why was Jong-nam killed? North Korean leaders in the past have eliminated family members and other senior leaders considered a threat to the regime. Some of the reasons may have been Pyongyang's new missile tests which invited fresh UN sanctions in November 2016; developments in South Korea where President Park Geun-hye was impeached in December 2016 which raised tensions in the peninsula; Beijing's protection of Jong-nam; election of Donald Trump as US president; upcoming joint US-South Korea military exercise in March 2017; and criticisms of the regime and calls for reforms by Jong-nam. These factors may have all added up making Jong-un uncomfortable. He saw Jong-nam as a serious threat and may have decided to remove his half-brother.

Reports indicate Jong-nam kept a low profile and never challenged Jong-un's leadership. South Korean National Intelligence Service, which keeps a close tab on North Korea, said that there was a long-standing order from Jong-un to eliminate Jong-nam, and described the assassination as "international terrorism".

Why was Jong-nam not killed in Macau? Perhaps because Chinese protection of Jong-nam was fool-proof. Malaysia was an easier place to commit the crime. The airport was chosen for the ease with which attackers could get away.

Fanatic dictators are always nervous and insecure and tend to eliminate all perceived opposition. Though there is no concrete information about how many family members and senior officials have been purged by Jong-un, there is enough intelligence to believe that hundreds of people at different levels have been executed.

While lots of rumours continue to circulate, it will be very difficult to link Jong-un to the murder of Jong-nam. But most narratives, as of now, point fingers at Jong-un. The true story may never get out and the mystery surrounding the murder may never be solved.

The writer is a former Ambassador and Secretary.