Seeking to inject fresh dynamism into Bangladesh-India ties, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina arrives in Delhi today on a four-day state visit. 

While two defence deals are high on the agenda for Hasina and her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi to seal during the visit, the prospect for a much-awaited Teesta water-sharing agreement gets even slimmer.

“Certainly, defence cooperation would be one of the outcomes of the visit,” Indian Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told a visiting Bangladesh media delegation at the external affairs ministry in Delhi yesterday evening. 

Asked about any pleasant surprises, the foreign secretary said he doesn't want to mislead anybody if the question relates to Teesta issue.

Jaishankar made it clear that he didn't have anything to believe “something dramatic” would happen in the next two days. “It's my honest assessment.”

He, however, said the Indian central government's view remained positive on the Teesta, but it needed to take all on board.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, invited to join the two PMs at a banquet hosted by Indian President Pranab Mukherjee in Hasina's honour, told a meeting in Bankura on Wednesday that there was not enough water in the Teesta river.

"What can I do if there is no water? … Teesta doesn't have water," the Indian media quoted Mamata as saying.   

During the 2011 Dhaka visit, the then Indian premier Manmohan Singh was all set to sign a treaty on sharing of waters of the Teesta, a common river of the two countries. But at the last minute, Mamata pulled out of the visit, stating that the terms on water-sharing were damaging for her state.

Briefing the Indian media in Delhi on Hasina's visit, Sripriya Ranganathan, joint secretary at the Indian external affairs ministry, said, “We do intend to sign two MoUs [memorandums of understanding] on defence: one a framework for cooperation for a few years for supply and research and development, and the second for Bangladesh to source defence equipment from India under which a line of credit will be earmarked.”

Diplomatic sources said Delhi would give Dhaka a credit of around $500 million for defence-related purchase.

India is also set to extend “another substantial concessional loan” to Bangladesh. But the amount has not been specified.

The sources, however, pegged the figure at $5 billion. This will be the third Line of Credit (LoC) by India to Bangladesh. The first two LoCs -- one amounting to $1 billion and the other $2 billion -- were announced in 2011 and 2015.

The fresh credit would be for infrastructure projects on railways, roads and waterways, among others, as Delhi moves to counter China's influence in neighbouring countries, including Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Last year, Bangladesh bought two submarines from China.

Asked about Mamata's joining the banquet and prospect for Teesta deal, Ranganathan said, “I cannot pre-judge what the leaders will discuss nor will I be privy to that.”

She, however, said Modi conveyed to Hasina in the past that the federal government of India needs the support of state governments to take certain decisions on issues like water-sharing and to implement them.

"So, it is difficult to predict anything on this at this point of time.”

Mamata's agreeing to join the luncheon to be hosted by Modi for Hasina and the dinner by Pranab on April 9 triggered guarded optimism in diplomatic circles about the Teesta deal.

There had been doubts about Mamata attending the events after she, in a recent interview to a TV channel, accused the Indian government of keeping her in the dark about a reported move to ink the Teesta deal.

Mamata has also been invited to be present when Modi and Hasina flag off through video conferencing a passenger train and bus service connecting Kolkata and Khulna and a cargo train service between Birol in West Bengal and Parbatipur in Bangladesh for ferrying diesel to northern Bangladesh.

Dhaka expects Delhi to travel the extra mile to ensure the Teesta deal or at least get a concrete assurance from it during Hasina's visit. The PM is already under attack from the BNP which is accusing her of "selling the country's interests to India."

Mamata's resistance to Teesta treaty, which began in September 2011 when she opted out of Manmohan's Dhaka tour at the eleventh hour, stems from concerns over water availability in the Teesta in the northern part of West Bengal.

Talking to The Daily Star, several leaders of Trinamool Congress party said fresh panchayat polls in the state are just a few months away and Mamata wouldn't risk a decision on the Teesta.

During bilateral talks between Hasina and Modi, counter-terrorism and radicalisation of youth are also expected to dominate the agenda.

“All aspects of our security cooperation with Bangladesh are excellent,” Ranganathan said, adding, “We have an exhaustive menu on security.”

She said security cooperation got a boost a few years ago and was scaled up after the July 1 terror attack in Dhaka's Gulshan last year.

An MoU on cooperation on cyber security and an agreement on civil nuclear cooperation would be signed between the two countries, she added.

The two sides are likely to sign more than 20 agreements and MoUs in a wide range of areas, including information and communication technology, shipping, mass media, science and technology, trade and investment, and energy as well as management of the highly-porous border between the two countries.

Ranganathan described Hasina as a “very very special guest”, and said “we are giving finishing touches to a joint statement” to be issued after the talks between the two PMs, which will provide a future roadmap for Bangladesh-India relations.

This is really a special visit that would take the bilateral ties to a higher level, she noted.

According to Ranganathan, the two countries “have made very tangible progress” in almost all areas of cooperation and are working very hard to implement all the decisions taken during Modi's landmark visit to Dhaka in June 2015. 

She said Indo-Bangla trade stands at $6.5 billion of which India's exports account for $5.5 billion. Two-way imports and exports are rising.

Estimating cumulative Indian investment in Bangladesh at $3 billion, Ranganathan said, “There is a great deal of enthusiasm for more such investments from India in Bangladesh.”

Asked about Dhaka's complaints about non-tariff barriers in India to goods from Bangladesh, she said India needs “more clarity on specific instances”.  She said that setting up of more border haats would help narrow the trade deficit.

HECTIC SCHEDULE

On her arrival at the Palam Air Force Station in Delhi this afternoon, Hasina would be received by Minister of State for Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises Babul Supriyo and driven straight to the Rashtrapati Bhavan, official residence of the Indian president, on the Raisina Hills where she would stay during her visit.

This is the first time that a Bangladesh PM is being given the honour of staying at the sprawling British-built structure that once housed the viceroy of colonial India.

Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj will be the first Indian leader to call on Hasina this afternoon at the Rashtrapati Bhavan, and in the evening, Hasina will be given a dinner-reception at the Bangladesh High Commission premises.

Hasina gets into a packed schedule of engagements tomorrow, starting with a ceremonial reception and guard of honour by the three wings of India's defence services at the forecourt of the Rashtrapati Bhavan where both Pranab and Modi will be present.

The Bangladesh PM will then place floral wreaths at the memorial to Mahatma Gandhi, India's Father of the Nation, at the Raj Ghat.

Considerable significance is being attached to a 30-minute one-on-one meeting between Modi and Hasina before the delegation-level talks they would lead at the Hyderabad House tomorrow. Later, the two sides will sign a series of agreements and MoUs.

Soon after the talks and signing of MoUs, Modi and Hasina will jointly release the Hindi translation of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's “The Unfinished Memoirs.”

Modi will host a luncheon for Hasina at the Hyderabad House where Mamata is expected to be present.

In a throwback to blood-bonding between Bangladesh and India during the 1971 Liberation War, Hasina will honour the families of 1,661 Indian soldiers killed in the war. 

The function will be held at a convention hall named after India's only Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw who crafted India's military strategy during the 1971 war. The Indian PM will be present there.

Seven families of the Indian soldiers -- four from the Indian army, and one each from the air force, the navy and the BSF -- will be honoured by Hasina who will also hand over a cheque of Rupees 5 lakh to each of these families.

On April 9, Hasina will fly to Ajmer to perform “jiayarat” at the shrine of Sufi saint Khwaja Moinuddin Chisti. She will then return to Delhi to attend a dinner to be hosted by Pranab, who steps down in July on completion of his five-year term.

Hasina wraps up her visit with an address to the honchos of Indian industry and trade at the Taj Palace hotel on April 10 morning.