Erdogan's bid to become the new Ataturk of Turkey

Turkey will hold a referendum on April 16 for a new Constitution, which if passed will fundamentally change the political character of the government. Since the failed coup of July 15 2016, the third extension of the State of Emergency was made on January 19, 2017 for 90 days. Thus the referendum is being held under stifled conditions.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan argues that the existing parliamentary system often led to weak coalition governments that were unable to make bold decisions and function properly. A strong presidency will bring stability to the government and defend Turkey against internal threats like the Kurdish insurgency and external threats like terrorism.

The proposed amendments were in the ruling AKP's (Justice and Development Party) manifesto since the 2011 general elections. AKP wanted to hold the referendum after the general elections of June 2015, but was denied majority. After gaining majority five months later at the snap election in November 2015, Erdogan started pushing for the amendments.

People have been asked to approve/reject 18 amendments to the existing Constitution. The most significant amendments relate to the introduction of an executive presidency, replacement of the parliamentary system of government, abolishment of the post of prime minister, raising the number of parliament seats from 550 to 600, and changes in the supreme board of judges and prosecutors. If the amendments are approved, the changes will become effective after the 2019 general election. The plan to make Erdogan an all-powerful president is apparently the reason that triggered the military coup in July 2016 in the first place.

Erdogan is in an unenviable position because of developments in and around Turkey. Tremendous economic pressures from the burden of three million Syrian refugees; American bombing of Al Shayrat airbase in Syria on April 7 following chemical weapon attacks on the rebel-held town of Khan Sheikhoun; uneasy relations with Russia following the shooting down of a Russian fighter jet over Syria in November 2015; Turkish army still smarting after the failed coup of July 2016, which Erdogan luckily survived; the massive purge of civil services with hundreds of thousands losing jobs and sent to jail in the aftermath of the coup; repeated terrorist attacks that already cost more than 400 lives; the ongoing "Operation Euphrates Shield" in Syria against the Kurds; the unfinished battle of Raqqa; etc. And what is worse is that the recent diplomatic spat with Germany and the Netherlands has left Erdogan terribly isolated in Europe, Turkey's closest economic partner. 

If the amendments are approved, through this referendum, it will vastly increase the authority of the president – most importantly the president will bear party identity. This would increase the president's influence over the majority party in the parliament if they are from the same party.  The president will be empowered to dismiss the parliament anytime and call for fresh elections. Assuming that the current parliament continues and the next scheduled elections are held in November 2019, the proposed amendments could give Erdogan two five-year terms as president i.e. until 2029. More importantly, the Parliament will lose its authority to oversee the executive branch – the president, vice presidents and ministers. Though the parliament will continue to enact laws, the president will also be able to issue decrees. 

The call for the referendum has split the country between the secular minded elite and the conservative Islamist segments of the people. Major political parties have taken opposing positions on the referendum. Erdogan's ruling center-right Justice and Development Party (AKP) is championing a "Yes" vote that is supported by the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). The once dominant (Kemalist, social-democrat) Republican People's Party (CHP),  the opposition party in Parliament, is leading the "No" campaign, supported by the Kurdish-sympathetic HDP and several leftist groups.

Erdogan armed with the State of Emergency has already mounted a crackdown on all dissidents, which include opposition lawmakers, journalists, intellectuals, writers and the media. Only the government-friendly media is publicising the "Yes" campaign. Since open campaigning is not possible under emergency, the opposition parties are relying on social media and whispers, which are being closely monitored by the government. 

What was most unusual was Erdogan had tried to drum up support for the "Yes" vote amongst the nationalist Turkish diaspora living in Europe. After Germany refused to allow rallies, Erdogan had to cancel his trip and accused Berlin of "Nazi practices". This led to a sharp response from Angela Merkel, describing the comparison "unacceptable". After rallies in Netherland, Austria, and Switzerland were also banned, an angry Erdogan threatened to "open the gates" to Syrian refugees to go to Europe and accused the EU of a "crusade" against Islam.

However, the Turkey-EU spat has been popular amongst the Turkish diaspora, which looks upon devout Erdogan as a strong leader comparable to Kemal Ataturk. Opinion polls suggest that Erdogan's popularity soared to 88 percent after the failed coup, and 60 percent of the electorate will vote 'Yes' in the referendum. If Erdogan wins the referendum, Turkish foreign policy will surely become more hawkish.

A presidential system is not bad as long as there is separation of powers among the main organs of the government with proper checks and balances. Excessive concentration of powers may lead a president to become authoritarian.

Erdogan said the referendum "will be the rebirth" of Turkey. It is a pity that Erdogan, who was admired as a popular Prime Minister until he became president in 2014, is now walking down the murky lane of autocracy instead of strengthening the democratic institutions. One wonders whether Erdogan can survive another Fetullah Gülen like episode.

The writer is a former Ambassador and Secretary.