Human lives and economy: Can there be a trade off?

Coronavirus pandemic has changed not only actions and attitudes but also the doctrines and philosophies of states and economies worldwide. The market doctrinaires and market fundamentalists have overnight converted to state interventionists, the authoritarians and totalitarians showing liberal attitudes and liberal democracies are imposing bans on free movements. These are all the compulsions of the time and fundamentals to existence.

The old classical capitalist attitude towards society is, people are needed for economy and production. People's labour power is more important than their lives. The cleaver and enlightened capitalists since world war two transformed themselves to welfarists for generational supply of labour power for a sustainable productive system of capitalist growth and capitalist reproduction. The recent outbreak of Covid-19 added radically new dimensions to it. Because, it is not only a threat to economy and production, it poses threat to the very existence of Homo Sapiens on the planet irrespective of economic and social positions.

Political stars like first line heir to the British Crown, British Prime Minister, Iranian Ayatollahs to Canadian First lady; film stars, sports stars, business and media stars who are not in the attack and death list! Globally it created a "pandemic war" like situation which may be moving towards a new world order, which is unprecedented in world history of economic crisis, pandemics and wars. No hither to fought wars affected so many countries and states at a time within five months. No pandemic after 1800 CE has been so devastating in terms of spread. A new world order is going to emerge which is creating a new economic order too, may be known as "pandemic driven economic order" for a decade.

The USA may be in the lead. The current US administration declared a two trillion-dollar pandemic package which is about 10 percent of US GDP. The Indian government's initial package is Rs 1.7 lac crore which is 1 percent of their GDP. The great economic minds of India globally famous such as Amartya Sen, Avijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, Aravind Subramanium, Kausik Basu, Amit Seru and many others are advising government to increase the package to at least 6-7 lac crore, 4-5 percent of the GDP. Bangladesh also declared a stimuli package of Tk 72,750 crore. All these are initially hesitant or careful steps towards the mitigation of the crisis. Still there are a lot of uncertainties around it.

We have not heard yet any notable statement from Bangladeshi economists, only politicians are making all optimistic and stray comments. TV talk shows are busy airing corona guidance and sporadic talk shows. Philanthropy and donation news are also seen along with community and voluntary initiatives from concerned citizens. I may be wrong and also not properly informed. But our corona responses are too little, too late. We still lack far sightedness and seem unready for long-term consequences. Our stimulus package is industry, production and economy based, not human centred. Garment seems at the centre of our industrial stimulus package which contribute 6 percent to the GDP. The agriculture, rural and urban informal sector, expatriate workers and rest of other industries and services contribute the other 94 percent of the GDP. Growth is important but as a non-economist I believe at this moment, people and people's lives are more important than growth and all medium and long term economic concerns. Our immediate concern is saving lives.

I like to echo here what the world famous economist are suggesting to Indian government. First of all, what they are saying is, growth and economic sustainability is important. There cannot and should not be any trade-off between economy and lives. Economic sustainability is also important for supporting lives. But the crisis of a particular "time" is a very important factor to fix priority. Their advice is, within the next 12 months, economic recovery is possible. At least for the next three months, all efforts need to be devoted to combat the virus with all the possible ways and means and keep the food supply along with supply of other bare basic minimum necessities running. Three month's regimented effort is needed for taking total control of the pandemic crisis.

The Chinese and South Korean experience shows the way in that direction. Our health infrastructure (Bangladeshi) does not match theirs. We live under a very fragile health care situation. We have village based community clinics, union health centres, Upazlia health complexes, district level hospitals and medical colleges. Eighty percent investments of health are contributed in buildings and ninety percent revenues are spent on salaries. Real health service capacity is under scrutiny. Rich people do not take treatment here, middle class depends on private sector, and part of the poor only depend on public hospitals and clinics. Under the above circumstances, we have to have quick assessment of our capacity in terms of means, materials and health professionals (which include doctor, nurses, medical technologist, hospital beds, ICU, ventilation facilities, etc.) and the demands of the crisis. The whole nation needs to be mobilised under a single agenda, i.e. combating the coronavirus. The health professionals here are the front line fighters. They are the infantries, the artillery, armour, supply, signal, all have to be in their support. The general administration, police, army, politicians, local government leaders, all should be in the second line in support of the frontline. On the other hand, community management is another front which has to be strictly managed.

The four priority actions at this moment though late, but better late than never, are suggested for consideration of the government and the people: i) Completely lockdown all the "hotspots" for at least one month and restrict indiscriminate movement everywhere; ii) Massive efforts for identification through proper tests and separation and treatment of identified patients; iii) Ensuring food and other necessities at the door step of the needy; and iv) Procurement of medical essentials and their supply and utilisation (equipment and medicines) in all competent hospitals and health outposts.

The relaxation in people's movements may not be started before mid-May, 2020. Allow limited train movements with half the seat capacity, in the same way domestic airlines by filling half of the seats may start flying and the truck movements with all medical precautions have to be kept going from mid-April. A large truck fleet can be mobilised for the easy movement of goods all over the country. The Chittagong port may operate with its utmost capacity. All offices and educational institutions may start limited operation online after April 15 to keep the country on the move.

In the second line of priorities are the followings: i) Farmers and farm families have to be supported to keep agricultural production flow intact and public procurement of farm products need to be thought of as an option. It is not only rice or paddy, other perishable products as well may be procured to make those available to the people and also to keep control on price. It will be an incentive to sustain growth and employment in agriculture; ii) Natural calamity season is also in the offing, adequate preparation for that is also to be kept in mind; iii) In cities like Dhaka, dengue outbreak has to be kept in check; iv) The greatest Muslim religious occasion Ramadan and Eid festival are going to be observed during the month of April and May. Necessary support and restraint need to be observed in observance of Ramadan and eid; v) Side by side, in dealing with coronavirus, hospitals and doctors have to be separated to treat other critical patients. Current arrangements for advising patients with minor complains through medical hotlines are appropriate measures.

This is the time also to consider massive enhancement of resources for building our health care system. We can also consider spending 4 to 5 percent of our GDP in health care. Government may appoint a taskforce to identify the projects and sectors from where money can be diverted to health. Total safety net budget, PM's special fund, and community and NGO efforts may be directed towards feeding the people in need in the cities and villages. Designing complicated projects with target group is irrelevant under the current situation, especially safety net, anybody and everybody irrespective of former economic status are entitled to have support. Then people will not be desperate to move and stay calm. At this time, we need not be very wise but must act quick and smart in distributing food for the needy.     It is not a trade-off, only a crash programme for six months on health and social safety. Economic recovery could be the agenda we will be pursuing from the end of May this year. But for now, saving lives must come first. The economy cannot flourish on the dead bodies of people.   

Dr Tofail Ahmed is a local governance expert and vice-chancellor of Britannia University, Cumilla. E-mail: tofail101@gmail.com