Ten takeaways from one year of Covid-19

It's been almost one year since the novel coronavirus was identified in China and reported to WHO. During the past year, the pandemic caused by Covid-19 has spread to the entire world, over six and a half crores have been infected, and over 15 lakhs have died. We have seen countries suffering from multiple waves of the pandemic, different types of responses to the health challenge, severe crisis hitting the global economy and different types of measures taken in response to the latter. So much was unknown about the disease during its early days that there were differences even among scientists and epidemiologists on measures needed to contain the spread of the virus and mitigate its adverse effects. In the history of civilisation, this is one of the most serious challenges faced by mankind. It is perhaps time to look back and see what are the major takeaways from this experience.

Why have some countries/regions been more affected than others?

It is well-known that some countries and regions have been more affected by the pandemic than others. Globally, Europe, America, parts of Latin America and parts of Asia have been more affected than Africa and parts of Asia. Scientists have scratched their heads and research has been done to understand this variation. Explanations ranging from genetic differences and basic hygiene practices of certain races to the timeliness and stringency of measures undertaken at the beginning of the outbreak have been put forward. And yet, it is not clear whether there are convincing explanations of why, for example, the number of infections per million of population is only in double digits in China, Thailand and Vietnam as opposed to thousands in not-too-far-away countries like Bangladesh and India.

Maintain social distance, wear mask and wash hands

On how to contain the spread of the virus, it is customary to recite the trinity of social distancing, mask wearing and hand washing. But the real challenge is their implementation. Human being is a social animal; and the experiences of countries as diverse as Bangladesh, Brazil or Germany show how difficult it is to persuade them to abstain from socialisation and to maintain distance from each other when they do so. People consider attending religious congregations their pious duty and right. Whether it is Eid or Thanksgiving, people are extremely reluctant to forego celebration with their near and dear ones. Maintaining social distance during such occasions gets low priority. Younger people even in developed countries have been seen to go to any extent to arrange and attend parties (there were instances of parties held in remote forest areas as a way of evading law enforcers).

As for wearing masks, issues like personal freedom and democratic rights come into play. While it is easy to preach frequent washing of hands, it can be a far cry for millions of people who have to walk miles just to procure a jar of water for drinking. So, when one is asked what else can one do other than wearing mask and maintaining social distance, the inevitable answer is: precious little. 

Well-thought-out strategy and clearly articulated messages are important

Countries that were able to put together well-thought-out strategies and send clear messages to the people attained greater success in containing the virus. There are different models of such success stories ranging from authoritarian regimes like in China to democracies like Australia and New Zealand. At the other extreme are countries (e.g. the USA, Switzerland—the latter, during the second wave) that could not put together such a strategy at the national or local level, and as a result, failed to contain the virus. The importance of clearly-laid-out strategies is also illustrated by the difference in the experience of the same country at different points in time. In Switzerland, for example, the success of containing the first wave could not be replicated during the second wave because of ambivalence and delay in putting in place the needed strategy.

Health services put to test in developing and developed countries

When the pandemic hit, health service infrastructure was strained and put to test not only in developing countries like Bangladesh but also in high-income countries in Europe and America. In general, the strain was felt more in countries where health service is over-dependent on the private sector. Scrambling to erect makeshift hospitals in parks (USA) and convention centres (Bangladesh) and to transfer patients to nearby countries (The Netherlands) are indicators of a general malaise: neglect of the health sector in public policy.  

Effective shutdown helps, but for how long can that be done?

One way of ensuring social distance is to shut down public life, and its effectiveness has been demonstrated in a wide range of situations ranging from Wuhan to New Zealand, and to a number of countries in Europe during the first wave of the virus in the spring of 2020. However, apart from the issue of jeopardising livelihoods, issues like democratic rights of people to move freely have been invoked in various countries. In several countries of Europe, there have been street protests against shutdown of economic activities.

Influencing human behaviour, raising public awareness

At least two of the measures that are critical to fight the pandemic—viz., social distancing and wearing mask (and to an extent the third one, greater attention to personal hygiene, also)—require changes in human behaviour. Although people in a number of East Asian countries became familiar with and used to wearing masks when they fought viruses before, the concept of social distancing is rather new. If lack of public awareness about it at the early stage of the pandemic was a major factor, influencing human behaviour continues to remain a challenge even after a year of the fight against the pandemic.

Dilemma between saving lives and livelihoods

The dilemma between saving lives and saving livelihoods is a reality not only in developing countries but in high-income developed countries as well. Support was provided to businesses affected by the shutdown and the economic crisis that ensued. But given the prolonged recession, a repeat of shutdown to contain the second wave of the virus provoked resistance from the business community in several high-income countries.

Has coronavirus acted as the great equaliser?

From the early days of the pandemic, people of all classes ranging from heads of governments, political and social leaders, business executives and stars from different fields to ordinary citizens were infected. And that gave rise to a view that the virus would act as a big equaliser in society. But after a year's experience, there is enough reason to doubt whether that has been so in reality. Although anyone can be infected by this virus, the probability of certain classes of people being infected seems to be higher. Lower-income people living in congested housing, immigrants, and minorities face a higher degree of risk compared to higher-income people. Also, the impact of the economic crisis that has followed from the pandemic is not neutral to classes—with the poor, the youth and women suffering more.

The pandemic has accentuated existing challenges

It is not only the challenges of eradicating poverty and reducing inequality that have become tougher in the pandemic-affected world. Other challenges—e.g. domestic violence, gender differences in the labour market, differences in educational opportunities—have also been accentuated by the pandemic and related developments. Irrespective of the level of development of a country, domestic violence has increased, women find themselves at greater disadvantage in the labour markets and sometimes withdraw from the labour market, and students from lower-income households are dropping out of education.

Fatigued by fighting pandemic

The evening applause for doctors and other front-line workers, which was a practice in several countries during the first wave of the pandemic, was no longer there during the second wave. People no longer accepted shutdowns without question. They started ignoring calls and exhortations for minimising contacts. Policymakers started showing ambivalence in extending support to their economies and saving them from further damage. In sum, societies seem to have been taken over by a kind of fatigue.

Fortunately, vaccines are around the corner, and there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel. However, a key question is whether people will have access to them in an inclusive manner irrespective of the level of development of their country, level of income, race, and social strata.  While there will be practical challenges in the roll-out of the vaccine, no less a challenge for mankind is to rise over "vaccine nationalism".

Rizwanul Islam, an economist, is former Special Adviser, Employment Sector, International Labour Office, Geneva.