To move or not to move

For those who had expected a quick rapprochement initiative from the Biden administration with regard to Iran, especially a return to the 2015 landmark Iran nuclear deal, the recent comments by the new US top diplomat, Antony Blinken, may have perhaps been a little disappointing.

In his first public comment on Iran, the new Secretary of State Blinken stated that "if Iran comes back into full compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA, the United States would do the same thing." This means that while the Biden administration has shown interest in coming back to the nuclear deal—also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—for this to happen, Iran will have to make the first move. Iran is unlikely to do this, and for various reasons.

First of all, Iran was compliant with its obligations under the JCPOA, including staying within the limits of uranium enrichment and enriched uranium stocks, as reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency in a report in 2018, and also confirmed by US intelligence agencies, as suggested by Blinken in a January 8, 2020 interview with the CNN, "It [JCPOA] put in the most intrusive inspections regime in arms control history, and, by every account, Iran was abiding by the agreement… And our own intelligence agencies confirmed that. That was a very strong foundation upon which to build." 

Despite this, and in complete disregard to the requests from the other signatories of the JCPOA—namely the P4+1 countries: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom plus Germany—the US under the Trump administration unilaterally pulled out of the multilateral deal. The US then unleashed a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran to force it to negotiate a new deal with the US. This move was also in sync with the interests of Trump's regional allies: Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE, some of whom had vehemently opposed the JCPOA in the first place.

A bevy of harsh sanctions were imposed on Iran, even when the nation was reeling from the shocks of the pandemic and the common people were having to bear the brunt of it. The other signatories of the JCPOA could not do much to help Iran either, although the US pulling out of the JCPOA had been due to no fault of Iran. In the context of this reality, one can understand Iran's distrust towards the US and its unwillingness to make the first move in the return to the JCPOA.

Moreover, the US does not only want Iran to meet its JCPOA obligations for it to consider lifting the sanctions and gradually return to the agreement, they also want to add more elements to the negotiations to have a "longer and stronger agreement", which would include Iran's missiles programme and "destabilising activities" in the region. And there have been suggestions that other regional players might be included in the negotiations this time, including the Saudis.

Iran has responded in the negative to both suggestions. The country's foreign minister, Javad Zarif, has clearly stated on multiple occasions that Iran will not renegotiate the current deal, nor will it discuss its missile programme. Moreover, Iran has rejected a recent French suggestion that the Saudis be included in any new talks to apparently avoid the mistake of not having involved regional countries in the negotiations last time. Iran's response has been to the point: "The nuclear accord is a multilateral international agreement ratified by UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which is non-negotiable and parties to it are clear and unchangeable," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said.

And even if the current Iran regime wants, it cannot sit at the negotiating table and accept all these new demands. Given the weakened position of Hasan Rouhani's party in the February 2020 parliamentary elections, this would be unlikely.

The backstabbing by the US in launching a maximum pressure campaign against Iran with the harshest possible sanctions, along with the unlawful assassination of Iran's top military general Qassem Solaimani in January 2020, has only solidified the anti-US narrative of the conservative hardliners. And they are in a strong position in the Iranian parliament now—occupying 230 of the 290 seats.

If the US is contemplating triggering negotiations post the presidential elections scheduled for June 18, 2021, it might be too little too late. For one, the Iranian parliament, dominated by the hardliners, is making swift moves to expand and strengthen its nuclear programme. In November last year, the parliament approved a bill that requires the production of 120 kg of 20 percent enriched uranium at the Fordow nuclear site on an annual basis by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI).

Last month, the speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, visited the Fordow nuclear site himself to be briefed on the uranium enrichment stockpiles and related matters. The country also plans to install additional IR2m gas centrifuges in the coming months to further facilitate production of enriched uranium. 

And with the US not coming up with any concrete stance regarding their country's possible return to the JCPOA, one cannot blame Iran for prioritising its military strength, especially in the context of Israel suggesting that military actions against Iran is an option on the table. "Iran can decide that it wants to advance to a bomb, either covertly or in a provocative way. In light of this basic analysis, I have ordered the IDF to prepare a number of operational plans, in addition to the existing ones. We are studying these plans and we will develop them over the next year," the Israel Defence Forces Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi said recently.

And Israel's former national security adviser, Major General (res) Yaakov Amidror, who is known to have close ties with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, went so far as to threaten the US with striking Iran if the US reenters the JCPOA, "In a situation where the United States returns to the old nuclear agreement with Iran, Israel will have no choice but to act militarily against Iran to prevent it from manufacturing a nuclear weapon".

This coming from someone like Yaakov Amidror could not have been a slip of tongue, but a deliberate and calculated threat to the US and Iran.

While it is understandable that the US has made many foreign policy mistakes under the Trump regime, which might have led other nations to undermine its command as a leading world power, allowing Israel and the regional allies to dictate its Middle East policy would not be desirable from the new US administration.

The appointment of Robert Malley as envoy for Iran—an Obama administration official who had played an instrumental role in cracking the 2015 nuclear deal—comes as a welcome move to end this deliberately created deadlock over the JCPOA. One hopes that his experience of having walked the slippery rope with Iran and his understanding of the complexities involved in this would facilitate Malley's efforts to come to a peaceful resolution to curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions. However, in view of the aggressive approach of the conservatives in the Iranian parliament, the highly provocative statements of Israel, and the sluggish response from the new US administration, Malley will have little room to make his moves.

While the US approach of consulting various parties with regard to how the country should respond to the JCPOA is a wise decision, it however must not spend too much time in deliberations, especially in view of the urgencies. Could the Blinken-Malley duo crack another solution to this stalemate? Only time will tell.   

The Middle East is a complex maze: there are multiple parties—regional and global—with vested interests in the region. And all are jostling for hegemony and greater control over this fragmented landscape. However, a nuclear war—or a war or any sort—in this already volatile region could further push it to the brink of collapse. This is an outcome that is absolutely not desirable. The US being a world power must do all it can to come to a peaceful resolution with regard to Iran's nuclear ambitions. The US cannot allow Israel or other allies to dictate its foreign policy. It has lost a lot of its credibility under the Trump administration. Now, it is time for the US to do the right thing, and in the wake of the prevailing realities in the Middle East, that would be to restore the JCPOA and then perhaps take it forward from there, in order to reach a meaningful "longer and stronger agreement".  

Tasneem Tayeb is a columnist for The Daily Star.

Her Twitter handle is: @TayebTasneem