Why Ukraine will end up in ruins

Before Ukraine was invaded, it received strong assurances from the US and the UK that they would stand beside the country if it's attacked. Europe in its entirety, too, had vowed to stand with Ukraine.

Ukraine has been invaded.

Last week, Russia launched a land assault from three different fronts, as well as an air strike and missile attacks. Europe and the US are now busy imposing sanctions on Russia. The more they threaten sanctions, the more aggressive Putin's attacks become. US and Nato have confirmed they won't send troops to Ukraine. European superpowers Germany and France, on the other hand, have started sending weapons to Ukraine as a show of companionship.

But there's no comparison between Ukraine's military prowess and Russia's might. Ukraine, a former Soviet Union colony, was once the world's third largest nuclear power, but thanks to the US, the UK, Russia and Europe, it is now a denuclearised country. It was forced to hand over some of its nuclear weapons to Russia after failing to pay off its debt for gas. Some it had to destroy. Now, Ukraine is helpless as Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression lays waste to the country.

Russia has already claimed to have destroyed Ukraine's anti-aircraft defence system and a number of military establishments. Its tanks are waiting on the outskirts of the capital city of Kyiv and the second major city of Kharkiv. US President Joe Biden proposed to rescue Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but declining the offer, Zelenskyy asked for firearms instead, which the US and Europe are supplying.

But will Ukraine be able to continue resisting the Russian advance with these weapons? How would doling out these weapons to the general population help its cause? Within a couple of days of the invasion, Ukraine realised that their 200,000-strong military force wouldn't be able to withstand Russia's aggression. What chances does a regular citizen, sans any training, have against the Russian military, then? A guerrilla warfare by enlisted civilians could cause Russia some trouble—but to what extent?

Before supplying these weapons, the so-called compatriots kept on bellowing that Russia would have to pay a heavy price for invading Ukraine, threatening to slap the country with the toughest economic sanctions ever. Let's assume that all these sanctions would put Russia in a troublesome situation, which it wouldn't be able to recover from even with full support from China, an economic superpower. In that case, Russia will face economic devastation and the Western powers stand to benefit from Russia getting weaker. But what does Ukraine stand to gain in that scenario?

Two regions of Ukraine have declared independence. Russia's bombs and gunfire will not only demolish Ukraine's physical infrastructure—they will also destroy its economy. A large part of the population will be displaced to Poland and other European countries as refugees. It is difficult to predict whether the death toll amounts to thousands or hundreds of thousands.

What was the point of the promise to "stand with" Ukraine, then?

The US and Europe aren't trying to bring Ukraine into Nato's fold out of the goodness of their hearts; they have their own interests. It is impossible to station US or Nato troops near Russian territory, and the US knows that—so does Ukraine—because Russia has always been vocal about its displeasure in this regard. But the US' empty promises misled Ukraine. Despite knowing that Putin would go aggressive, the US led Ukraine to take the risky route of trying to join Nato.

Will Putin emerge as the winner from the conflict with Ukraine? History tells us otherwise. The ever powerful Soviet Union had to bow out of Afghanistan after suffering a humiliating defeat. The same happened with the US and its allies decades later. No big power has been able to claim victory by invading a smaller country. But then what happens to those smaller countries? The Taliban took over Afghanistan, and Assad managed to retain his throne in Syria, but did they win? It's not about winning or losing here. Those nations were destroyed in the conflicts between big powers.

Putin may install a government of his choice in Ukraine, or the huge economic sanctions may seal the fate of this modern-day dictator. The current rulers of Ukraine are likely to get killed or seek political asylum in other European nations. But what about the Ukrainian people?

If the war continues for an extended period, Ukraine will collapse. Even if Russia retreats from Ukraine within a short period of time, the internal wars in Ukraine will not cease to exist. Everyone for or against Russia will stay armed. Now the anti-Russian groups are getting weapons from the West. Russia will give more weapons to the pro-Russian population. The armed conflict within Ukraine may intensify and culminate into a civil war. There's also the possibility of Russia further breaking the country down into smaller, independent nations.

Basically, the devious US strategy is responsible for the proliferation of arms among Ukrainian civilians. The US and European media are widely publishing heavily glorified tales of recently married couples, lawmakers and former presidents of the nation taking up arms to defend their homeland. On the other hand, Russia is slowly but surely capturing Ukraine. As history tells us, the worst fate awaits the common people of Ukraine. Already, more than 100,000 people have sought refuge in Poland. The West will make them political scapegoats, instead of repatriating them. The armed Ukrainian factions will fight each other. The US will keep on supplying more weapons to the groups they favour. Their opponents will get supplies from Russia. War—or to be more precise, civil war—will be a permanent feature of life in Ukraine. It doesn't matter whether Putin will win, lose or get toppled—Ukraine, a country rich with mineral resources, will fall into ruin.

Golam Mortoza is a journalist at The Daily Star. The article was translated from Bangla by Mohammed Ishtiaque Khan.