Rice production to decline: USDA forecasts on Bangladesh

Bangladesh may bag lower rice output this season, which begins with Boro paddy in winter, as heavy rainfall and flash floods in June have damaged the Aush crops to be harvested next month, according to a recent forecast by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The agency raised its estimate regarding the Boro rice harvested in the April-May period to 1.97 crore tonnes, up 2 per cent from the previous harvest.

However, the floods in June in northern and north-eastern regions of the country will offset the gains in overall Boro rice cultivation, which provides more than half of the annual rice output.

Meanwhile, Aush rice production may dip 24 per cent year-on-year to 20.5 lakh tonnes in the upcoming harvest, as per USDA estimates.

The agency forecasts that the area used for Aush rice cultivation may fall by 22 per cent, or 2.20 lakh hectares, to 9 lakh hectares due to the severe flooding.

In mid-June, heavy rainfall in the northern and north-eastern regions and their adjacent Indian states of Assam and Meghalaya caused severe flooding in the Sylhet and Sunamganj districts, the USDA said.

The inundation damaged more than 56,000 hectares of Aush plantations, the organization added, citing a local media report.

The USDA released its forecast at a time when farmers in many parts of the country are facing difficulty in preparing their lands to transplant Aman paddy seedlings for a lack of rainfall. The cultivation of Aman paddy, the second biggest rice crop, is heavily reliant on monsoon rains.

Bangladesh registered 6,825 millimetres (mm) of rainfall between July 1 and July 25, down 68 per cent from the normal average of 31,347mm for that month, according to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department.

The USDA predicted that the production of Aman rice, which will be harvested in November and December, would increase by 1 per cent to 1.39 crore tonnes this year on the assumption of favourable weather conditions, sufficient seed and fertiliser supply, and continued support from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE).

The USDA also forecasted that overall rice yields may decline 1 per cent to 3.56 crore tonnes in marketing year 2022-23, which begins from May.