Bangladesh to be 9th largest consumer market by 2030

Bangladesh is expected to be the ninth-largest consumer market globally by 2030, leaving behind the United Kingdom and Germany, said a report by HSBC Global Research yesterday.

"Bangladesh is expected to see the fastest growth in its consumer market – that is, the population earning more than $20 per day in constant Purchasing Power Parity terms – in the current decade."

HSBC prepared the Flying Dutchman' report titled "Asia's Shoppers in 2030" based on its new proprietary demographic database.

In 2021, Bangladesh was the 16th largest consumer market globally.  

Bangladesh has registered steady economic growth in recent years. With a population of 16.5 crore, the nation has seen a 6.15 per cent expansion in its gross domestic product on average since 2000.

"Vietnam, Bangladesh, and India are expected to see the biggest increase in consumer spending in the current decade," said the report.

The sectors that reflect considerable growth in Bangladesh are insurance, photographic and computer equipment, imputed rental and housing, package holidays and recreational items, vehicle purchase, and financial services, it added.

Bangladesh's consumer market will see more than 7 per cent growth annually from 2021 to 2030, said the report, which was prepared last month.

China, India, and the US will continue to be the top three consumer markets by 2030 as they were in 2021. However, Brazil will lose its fourth position to Indonesia by then. Korea and Japan will also see a drop in the overall market by 2030.

The report forecasts that over the next few decades, the world, and Asia in particular will undergo significant demographic shifts.

As for Asia, the region will become considerably older, and wealthier, and households will continue to get smaller. These changes result in significant shifts in spending patterns across Asia.

"Asia will become the dominant player in global consumer markets," it said.

The number of people spending $21-50 a day is rising rapidly in India. In China, more people are moving into the upper-income bracket, which represents the group that spends more than $111 per day.

In Asia, the middle-class population is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.1 per cent until 2040. The upper-middle-class population with individuals spending $51-$110 per day is set to expand by 5.9 per cent.

In terms of size, mainland China is expected to retain its dominant position as the biggest consumer market in the world with more than 80 crore consumers by 2030.

In India, the report said, the earnings of upper-middle-class individuals, who are making between $50 and $110 a day, are expected to grow by an average of 24 per cent per annum until 2030.

In Indonesia, it is expected to grow by an average of 13 per cent, and in Vietnam, the earnings of upper-middle individuals are expected to rise by 17 per cent.

"This all suggests that Asian nations will become bigger players in global consumer markets," said HSBC.

The report said spending on recreation and transport is expected to go up at the fastest pace, at more than 7 per cent per annum. Conversely, food expenditure is expected to see its lowest growth at just 5 per cent over the same period.

As for Bangladesh, the report said, the annual expenditure growth for transport is likely to be the highest, over 8 per cent, followed by housing, water, and fuel.