New coalition echoes same old problems

Pakistan's newly declared coalition government echoes the 2022 alliance that ousted Imran Khan, analysts say, demonstrating the military's enduring influence, but also Khan's unspent opposition power.

Last week's split-verdict national election delivered a surprise boon for independent candidates loyal to jailed ex-premier Khan, defying an army-backed crackdown with a combined showing larger than any other party.

But late Tuesday the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), favoured by the top brass, said it would partner with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and some smaller parties to form next government.

"The more things change, the more they remain the same," political analyst Hafsa Khawaja told AFP. "This is the same set-up, but just with the stamp of these elections."

A WEAK REPEAT

The groundswell of support for Khan loyalists means a broad coalition is again needed to form the parliamentary majority required to mint a new government. But there are indications this version will be weaker than the last.

PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, foreign minister in the 2022-23 government, said this time his party won't take ministerial roles and will back the prime minister "on an issue-to-issue basis".

There is still a lot of negotiating to go, however, including a likely return to the presidency for his father, Asif Ali Zardari.

If PPP doesn't take any ministries, that would make the administration effectively a minority government -- a copy of the previous alliance but on a "weaker footing", said analyst Amber Rahim Shamsi.

ARMY STILL PRESENT

Pakistan's military has governed the nation for much of its history. PML-N say their candidate for prime minister is Shehbaz Sharif -- who helmed the alliance that ousted Khan and is regarded as amenable to military influence.

Likewise, analysts say a fragile coalition arrangement will suit the military establishment, as it remains keen to choreograph civilian affairs after Khan's crusade of defiance.