Struggling with persistent inflation, the poorest people in rural Bangladesh are increasingly relying on rice to satiate their hunger while cutting back on protein-rich foods, according to a study by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS).

In the last two or three years, Bangladesh entered a phase of relatively high inflation, with the rise in prices consistently hovering above 9 percent.

Notably, increases in food inflation were higher than in non-food inflation in FY24.

These rising food prices have pressured rural people to cut back on consumption, according to a study, titled "How Rural Food Inflation Impacts Rural Food Consumption Patterns: Evidence From 64 Districts".

BIDS Director General Binayak Sen, Research Fellow SM Zahedul Islam Chowdhury and Research Associate Rizwana Islam jointly conducted the survey across 3,887 households in 64 districts.

According to the survey's results, the daily average consumption of rice per person in rural areas has gone up to about 412 grammes (g) in 2023 compared to around 349g in 2022.

In contrast, the daily average consumption of mutton and beef per person has declined to 0.28g and 4.02g respectively from 1.23g and 10.25g, it said.

"We see the impact of food inflation on the consumption of different foods by the rural people by comparing our observation from BIDS survey data with data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2022," Rizwana Islam said while presenting the paper.

Sen, in his introductory speech, said they wanted to see two things—what the inflation rate was on the ground and what was the likely impact of food inflation on the consumption behaviour of rural households.

"We found that inflation, however, is not less than 15 percent...Although rice consumption on balance did not decline, there has been a dramatic drop in consumption of some fruits and meat, especially mutton, beef, and vegetables," Sen said.

Although overall fish consumption has remained stable, there has been a decline in the consumption of larger fish varieties like Rui and Katol fish among the rural poor, he said.

"We also disaggregated the average consumption scenario, contrasting the poor with the non-poor, and we found that the decline in consumption was much more dramatic in the case of rural poor and in the middle class," Sen said.

While presenting data on inflation, Rizwana said their estimation shows that prices increased by 19.94 percent in the last year when calculated through the 12-month recall method and by 17.76 percent when calculated through the prices of one-month recall method, said.

During FY24, rice prices increased by 1-5 percent, while prices for beef, mutton, poultry, and fish rose by 6 percent, 11 percent, 15 percent and 27 percent respectively.

Pulses saw an 11-23 percent increase, eggs 24-27 percent, and fruits and vegetables experienced hikes ranging from 20-33 percent. Prices of some items, such as onions and gourd, even rose more than 100 percent.

Meanwhile, sugar prices surged 35 percent, and liquid milk prices rose 25 percent.

In an analysis of rural food consumption patterns, the study found that consumption of protein-rich animal food items such as beef and mutton was much higher among the richest group compared to the poorest, especially in times of high inflation.

For example, per capita daily beef consumption has been assessed at 7.4g for the richest group, in contrast to only 1g for the poorest.

For relatively lower-priced items like chicken or duck, the difference is less striking—32g for the richest group as opposed to 21g for the poorest.

For eggs, the consumption figures are even closer, 13g and 9g respectively.

However, the poor consume a higher proportion of low-priced fish such as pangasius.

The average per capita daily consumption of pangasius is 14g for the poorest, 12g for the poor, and only 8g for the richest, according to the survey.