Bangladesh's garment shipments to the USA, the South Asian country's single largest export destination, have been falling over the past two years due to a market correction although other major countries have already adjusted to the scenario.

Data from the US Office of Textiles and Apparel (OTEXA), a body under the US Department of Commerce, shows that the US imported garment items worth $72.94 billion in the January to November period of last year, registering 0.63 percent year-on-year growth.

Bangladesh accounted for $6.76 billion of the amount, reflecting a 0.44 percent year-on-year decline. Even then, it showed signs of recovery, especially as the country saw a sharp 25 percent decrease in garments exports to the US in previous 2023.

This raises the question of how competitor countries have managed to recover garment exports to the US and why Bangladesh, the third-largest garment supplier to US markets, is taking more time to recover.

To unearth the reasons, a glance back through time is required.

Historically, Bangladesh's growth in garment exports to the US has varied between 10-15 percent over the last few decades. But in 2022, garment exports to the US grew by more than 53 percent, the most in a single year, to $9.72 billion.

This unusual growth occurred mainly after the pandemic-led movement restrictions as retailers and brands imported more to meet pent-up demand in 2022.

Expectedly, exports did not continue at the same pace in the following years, especially as American retailers and brands had plenty of old stock of unsold clothing items, causing the growth rate to fall.

Moreover, during the last two years, the import of garment items by US retailers and brands was low as the severe economic fallout of the pandemic, including historic inflationary pressures, led to a fall in demand.

China, the largest global apparel supplier, has also been experiencing a similar situation. From January to November last year, China's garment exports to the US fell 0.30 percent to $15.22 billion year-on-year.

In the same period, garment exports from Turkey to the US fell 6.77 percent to $0.83 billion.

However, some countries, including India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Vietnam, have illustrated growth in garment exports to the US despite American retailers and brands cutting back on imports.

These countries capitalised on Bangladesh's political crisis, which began in June last year with the student-led movement against the Awami League government. The monthslong protests led to government ouster, labour unrest, shutdown of factories and disruption in shipment of goods, crippling industrial units that were already contending with an energy crunch.

For example, garment shipments from India to the US grew 4.49 percent to $4.36 billion in January-November last year.

This occurred as a few work orders were shifted away from Bangladesh to India following the student-led mass uprising, which prevented local exporters from being able to ship goods timely or booking new work orders.

Similarly, garment shipments from Pakistan to the US grew 6.57 percent to $1.97 billion.

Vietnam, the second-largest apparel exporter to the US after China, saw 4.48 percent growth in garment exports to the US, hitting to $13.77 billion in the 11-month period.

Vietnam was performing strongly even during bad times due to its strong supply chain and higher prices for exported items.

Different studies suggest that Bangladeshi exporters get half the price compared to their Vietnamese counterparts. For instance, if a t-shirt produced in Vietnam fetches $10, the same t-shirt made in Bangladesh commands only $5.

On the other hand, Indonesia has recently increased its capacity to manufacture high value-added garment items after its textile and garment sectors were injected with foreign direct investments in recent years.

From January to November last year, garment exports from Indonesia to the US grew 0.14 percent to $3.92 billion.

On a positive note for Bangladesh, local garment exporters are hopeful that shipments to the US will rebound strongly because of Trump's imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese and Mexican goods.

Kutubuddin Ahmed, chairman of Envoy Textiles, said garment exports to the US have been recovering as, under the USA's current policies, there is a 25 percent duty on Chinese goods while Bangladeshi apparel exporters face a 15.62 percent duty.

If Trump raises duties on Chinese goods, something he has already said his administration plans to do, then it might be as high as 60 percent. That would definitely benefit Bangladesh, Ahmed said.

Another move from Trump that will benefit Bangladesh is the imposition of a 25 percent duty on Mexican goods, including garment items.

This is because Mexico has turned into a major garment exporter to the USA in recent years, particularly to California, Ahmed added.

This, in turn, happened as Chinese entrepreneurs invested in the textile and garment sectors in Mexico to enjoy zero-duty benefits on exports to the US under "The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)", which came into effect on July 1, 2020.