US Middle East policy

American foreign policy is not what it used to be, at least when it comes to the Middle East. The tumultuous changes brought about by the Arab Spring has unseated governments, launched civil wars, re-entrenched military governments and changed the way the United States (US) does business there. The advent of the Islamic State (IS), whose rise has often been attributed to some of US's allies (wittingly or otherwise), has made things far more complicated since the days of Ayatollah Khomeini and Saddam Hussein when it was clear to see who the enemy was and what needed to be done to contain them. These days, President Obama finds it easier to do with the successors of the man who termed America "the great Satan" than swallow mass beheadings by its staunchest ally in the region. 

Today the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is taking a far more assertive role in projecting its power in its neighbourhood. But that hardly comes as a surprise, especially with the US administration moving ahead in cutting a deal with Tehran on the nuclear issue. This was a move that was vehemently opposed by Riyadh and Tel Aviv which saw the US moving on a different path – a path whereby America was willing to discard age old practices of containing an arch rival in the region for the purposes of nuclear disarmament. The differences in thinking between KSA and the US go long before that. It has its roots in the Arab Spring which was encouraged to a certain extent by Washington as a means to an end to remove unpalatable regimes – the words "freedom" and "democracy" were and remain foreign influences to theocracies and autocracies in the region. Whatever may be the difference of opinions between these two allies, the US can ill afford to alienate the world's largest oil producer, but foreign policy differences; especially on Syria is putting a strain which will not disappear anytime soon. 

While Iran's re-emergence means friction with KSA over oil, Israel views the Islamic Republic as a rogue nation which is bent on its destruction. The new realities of an Iran unshackled by sanctions are making strange bedfellows in the region. Increased cooperation, both military and otherwise between Israel and Egypt (the two nations have full diplomatic relations) and an unlikely arrangement of cooperation with KSA – all point to a general scepticism regarding the US as a reliable partner to foster peace in the region. 

The Russian entry into Syria in support of the Assads and a failure by NATO to counteract this entry has made US foreign policy under the Obama administration seem feeble and out of touch with ground realities for the most important players in the region, viz. KSA, the No. 1 oil producer and Egypt, the No. 1 powerful country in the Arab world. When it comes to containing the spread of Shia influence, there will be a convergence of interests among the major players in the regions. And we are already seeing some of that with Saudi warplanes being stationed in Turkey. There is also talk of putting boots on the ground, which has drawn the expected reply from Tehran that they will match troop deployments, if indeed Riyadh went ahead. Whilst all this is going on of course, Washington finds itself being increasingly squeezed out of a position where it actually has a say. 

While the US seems to be dithering, Russia appears to be in the ascent. With active military engagement in Syria and beefing up Iraqi forces with military hardware, the Russians appear, at least publicly to be a more reliable partner than the US – when it comes to fighting the IS. Russia has gotten results faster than the US-led coalition. That Syrian regime forces have for the first time in a few years gone on the offensive with Russian assistance and retaken territory is plain to see. Lastly, beyond lodging diplomatic condemnations, Washington has not been able to do much else and it is this last piece of inaction that has enraged allies like KSA to question US intent in the region.

Yes, the old relationships are now under a major strain. Traditional allies like KSA are not happy with the Iran deal. It is viewed by a wide range of players in the Mid-East as a game changer and where Washington is redrawing the balance of power without consulting its allies. At the end of the day, is the price of the US-Iran detente worth it for the US? Washington believes it is. Such perception comes from the fact that Tehran has successfully emerged as a powerful regional power and no peace is possible in Syria without Iran. In the words of Aaron David Miller, (Vice President for New Initiatives at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars) "Indeed the United States is stuck in a region it cannot transform and it cannot leave. And sadly, America is trapped there with old friends that don't trust it and have their own agendas, and emerging frenemies to whom it looks for solutions to problems it alone cannot resolve. Putting round peg in a square hole will be no easy matter."

The writer is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.