UK elections: Dramatic implications

DEFYING all predictions of a close-run election mainly between the Conservative and the Labour Party and the possibility of a hung parliament, David Cameron's Conservative Party won an unexpected margin of victory over the Labour Party. The electorate gave him the right to lead the UK for a second term without the need for a coalition government.

Serious political analysts believe that the outcome of the United Kingdom's general election is expected to reshape British politics including the future of the UK itself. 

The new government of David Cameron would be required to deal with a number of critical and challenging issues. This includes, among others, an 'in-out' referendum on Britain's membership of the EU to be held in 2017; the possibility of a renewed demand for Scotland's separation from Britain; and a rethinking on the first-past-the-post system following the political landside victory of the Scottish National Party (SNP) which won almost all of Scotland's 59 seats with barely 5 percent of votes it got nationally. Political observers feel that the astonishing result of SNP victory points to a potential breakup of the United Kingdom. 

The second term of David Cameron is most likely to be a difficult and testing time for him and the Conservative Party. The outcome of the 'in-out' referendum on UK's continued membership of EU is expected to either appease Euro-sceptic backbenchers in his party or lead to erosion of his support amongst them depending on the outcome. The prospect of the people opting for a vote “out” of the EU, though not one of David Cameron's preferred option, cannot be ruled out. In any case, even if Cameron campaigns against a Euro exit, it is felt that he would be required to placate his right wing over human rights issues. 

Incorporation of EU Law of human rights into British Statutes is believed to be opposed by some senior Tories who strongly feel that this might provide foreign criminals with too many protections as UK legal decisions can be appealed in Strasbourg. David Cameron is expected to enter into serious negotiations with EU ahead of the referendum.

The landslide victory of SNP reflects the profound change in Scottish politics and underscores the swing to the SNP cause for Scottish Independence with SNP becoming the third largest party in the United Kingdom. The reason its success is attributed to its largely dedicated and innovative election campaign on social media which no other parties could match. Many of its candidates are young; Mhairi Black, a 20-year old candidate of SNP defeated Douglas Alexander, the veteran old guard of the Labour Party, in a shocking election outcome. It is said that Mhairi Black is the youngest MP of UK in over two centuries. 

The main cause for SNP's incredibly huge margin of victory is largely believed by political observers to be due to SNP's campaign thrust that Scotland is fundamentally different from the rest of the UK, socially more liberal and far more left-wing. Scotland being so different from the UK should call for its separate statehood. With the Conservatives returning to power in the UK, the push for Scottish independence is expected to acquire a renewed urgency and garner significantly greater support. If the 'in-out' referendum in the UK results in its exit from the EU, this would give much greater impetus to the movement for Scottish independence. 

Significantly, the Conservatives with a single seat in Scotland would virtually become an English-only party. Clearly, David Cameron faces formidable challenge in stemming the tide of Scottish independence. He would be required to come forward with substantive proposals for devolution of powers and bolder constitutional reforms to keep Scotland within the UK. This would amount to almost a new federal United Kingdom.

It is hard to predict the complex evolution and the shape of UK's politics following the outcome of the general election. It appears that the working of the Westminster parliamentary system, based on the first-past-the post system, has important implications for Bangladesh politics characterised by recurring political crisis. It is said that this type of Westminster polity suits the genius of the British people. It is time for a rethinking on the nature of our polity to ensure democracy based on good governance. This should enable Bangladesh to leapfrog from the present status of a least developed country to a middle income and eventually a modern, developed one.

The writer is a former UN Regional Administrator in Kosovo and Bangladesh Ambassador to Japan.
Email: rashed_ahmed2001@yahoo.com