Demographic dividends, Jinjira and vocational training

THERE is an African proverb: "The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago." This sits in well with Mughal Emperor Aurangzeb pronouncing his life's lesson in his last days: "What you can do today, don't  leave  it  for tomorrow."

Such proverbial and historical lamentations bear a salutary message warning us against the bane of procrastination. Conversely, they proclaim the virtues of timely action and intervention. The crux of the matter is: Every opportunity, especially the best one, has a shelf-life, an expiry date.     

The Demographic Impact Study launched  by the General Economics Division  and the UN Population Fund last Monday  urged the  government and the private sector to "act fast to take advantage of the large youth population" by way of reaping demographic dividends.  Bangladesh is already half way through its demographic dividend period. She is left with 16 years to be fully exploiting the potential manpower largesse of 15-59 years working age population peaking in 2032.

Expansion of the young population means a corresponding reduction in the number of dependents which is potential bonus to demographic dividend.  The 'younging' of the population is a national asset depending upon how it is used. It may be developed, trained manpower that is employable and productive at home and abroad or politically charged self-serving factions with a finger on every pie or indeed listless drop-outs from the mainstream given to addiction, extremism and criminalities.

The job is cut out. We take stock of where we stand in terms of deriving the benefits of demographic dividend in 2015. From the lessons learnt, we move on to capitalising the 16-year window of opportunities until 2032. Unless we create employment opportunities to absorb a major portion of the 22 million new entrants to the job market every year, getting dividends from a growing young population will largely remain unfulfilled.

The stake is even greater when you consider the importance of maximising benefits of the first series of demographic dividends. For that would leave an older generation with savings and financial security to be passed on to their progeny. This is the second dividend in prospect provided we succeed with the first one.

Certain comments from keen observers of the unfolding of Bangladesh's future have given me a leap of the mind, and I do hope these will perk up your spirits as well. Here we go! An Indian corporate official was watching the third day's proceedings of our second test match against Pakistan from the same complimentary box we happened to share by mere coincidence at the Mirpur Sher-e-Bangla National Stadium.  As Bangladesh struggled to chase a mammoth total, the whole array of their sweeping victories in ODI and T-20 series against Pakistan, let alone the brave, record-breaking performance in the gloriously drawn first test passed through the mind's eye.

Our Indian companion, himself a cricketer of some standing having represented Kerala in regional contests marveled at the improvement our national cricket team has made in recent years, emphasising that it is one of the best ODI sides in the world today. Then he made this insightful remark, "The advantage with Bangladesh is that it has a large population with a vast reservoir of raw talents waiting to be honed into not just one but a few good sides in all formats of the game."See how the pacers  have become strike bowlers , spinners are more attacking with guiles, the  batting depth trolls down to the ninth. All we need is to keep up the momentum with investment and sustained exposure under a world class professional management regime.

We are actually reaping a demographic dividend in cricket.

My esteemed friend reputed economist Dr. Mohammad Farashuddin in his pre-budget article in this paper on May 24 underscored the need for human resource development for harnessing 50 million youths towards reaping demographic dividends. While doing so he made a very pertinent suggestion which I quote: "In particular, through an amicably negotiated arrangement the Qaumi madrasa stream students could be brought under vocational training at government expenses, keeping intact the existing core curricula. So trained  Quami madrasa human resources would have  ready accessibility in the Middle East job markets."

Some West African countries have taken crash programmes among 15-18 year old youngsters to create    vocationally trained, large, technical cadres out of them. The new kids on the block will be the linchpin of the growth machine, as it were.

The Jinjira light engineering baseline thriving on knock-down technology and recycling of waste products   holds a promise for youth employment if developed into a more dynamic hub.  Japan after the Second World War took to technological improvisations by breaking down Western machineries. Eventually she would graduate on to the sophisticated engineering trajectory. Government and the private sector should try and put a shine to Jinjira's sheen.    

The writer is Associate Editor, The Daily Star.