After the US and Russian foreign ministers agreed upon an effective ceasefire following a number of discussions, expectations for peace intensified. Unfortunately, with a series of military strikes in Syria in support of their respective parties, tensions have now flared both at home in Syria and outside, as to whether the Syrian ceasefire plan will succumb to failure. The continuous failure of a Syrian ceasefire has brought another significant question to the limelight: whether the Syrian war will at all end in the foreseeable future or the suffocating situation in the war-run country will trigger a regional cold war or a grand global war. The efforts towards the 'cessation of hostility in Syria' brokered by the US and Russia and backed by the UN, requires a unified role by the regional and global powers. Without global unity, ceasefire activities must fail. The irony is that global measures to find a peaceful (!) solution to the problem are evident on one side and on the other, there have been concerns over the truce violations by the great regional and global powers.

Let's first look into the concept of ceasefire. The terms 'cessation of hostilities', 'truce', and 'ceasefire'- despite their distinct legal and symbolic connotations - have been indiscriminately used as attempts to resolve the Syrian conflict. We know a truce refers to a limited and temporary halt of activities or hostilities during a war. A cessation of hostilities, on the contrary, provides a more formal designation which falls short of a formal ceasefire signed by the warring parties. It is considered as the first essential step to resolving a conflict, notably to permit the delivery of humanitarian aid. AFP from Paris noted on March 6, 2016 that a simple cessation of hostilities could also permit a military response to the side that breaks. Now is the time to see whether any of these 'ceasefire' attempts are at all functioning or the bagpipes of peace-drama are played by the global leaders.

Peace efforts, starting from the 70th General Assembly of 2015 to the present ceasefire plan upheld by the US and Russia with UN support, are threatened by the contrasting policies of the two great powers. According to political analysts, their countervailing strategies risk plunging the West and Russia into a crisis not seen since the Cold War. Russian efforts and subsequent Western reactions have emerged as a tragedy in contemporary international relations. Against this backdrop, the reasons behind the crisis need to be identified and the unified role of the world community should be determined.

It's true that Syria's internal and external factors, including economic backwardness, unemployment, inflation and corruption springing from the dictatorship of Bashar al Asad, have been responsible for its political instability. However, the much more dangerous challenge emanates from its leaders' failure to construct the Syrian nationhood and consolidate its statehood by binding the different religious factions such as Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds into one integrated nation. Without paying attention to its eco-historical, geopolitical and anthropological construct, extreme dictatorship was imposed which worked as a major barrier to its national consolidation. Thus, on the micro sub-systemic level, Syria became highly destabilised and disorganised, while on macro systemic level, Syria remained disintegrated and fragmented.

Anthropologically speaking, the ethnic Sunni Muslims form the majority of Syrian population, which has been ruled by the minority Shiites. Syrian leaders failed in the grand task of national homogenisation of its people comprising of different religious and ethnic groups.

More dangerous than the domestic factors is the involvement of global powers in enlivening the ongoing crisis. Global powers have historically exercised influence and domination in the Arab world through their Arab stooges. Dictatorial rulers in most Arab countries have turned out to be either pro-west or pro-Russia. The US and its western allies extend political, economic and military assistance and cooperation to Saudi Arabia and other gulf states, in order to expand their spheres of influence as the Cold war strategy and similarly, Russia sides with Syria to combat the US policy. Thus, the countervailing strategies of the erstwhile superpowers are solely responsible for the tragic incidents developing in Syria. With the rise and growth of IS and Al-Qaeda rebels in recent years, Syria has emerged as the fertile ground of the struggle between global powers for preserving their geostrategic and political interests. The pro-Moscow Bashar supporters have been prone to formulate pro-Russian policies and the pro-western rebels have been fighting to offset them. The Syrian political crisis today has been built with this inherent and complex chemistry of internal and external dynamics.

In order to end the crisis, the international community, especially the US, the EU and Russia, need to come out of this psychology of this 'power zeal' while framing their policies regarding the war-torn country. Russian President Vladimir Putin still considers Bashar as Syria's legitimate president and terms the oust-government movement as anti-constitutional and terrorism. The West should understand the reality of Russia's concern to defend its naval base in Tartus and strategic base in Caspian Sea from where Russian jets flew combat missions. It's little wonder that the erstwhile superpower Russia would be adamant to protect its military base and nuclear arsenals, and that self defense would be its bottom line.

Russian leaders also need to understand the danger of triggering east-west confrontations. Both Russia and the West should find a peaceful and diplomatic way of resolving the Syrian crisis based on mutual understanding and friendship. Any effort to use force by Russia would only tickle the sleeping tigers of the cold war era, and lead the world to the verge of total destruction.

Some news media consider the western policy on Syria as the main culprit that eroded the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria. Some think that the Russian government, through its blind support to the Syrian government, has struck a rather discordant note in the post-détente state of equilibrium. However, there are people who would also like to respect Syria's right of self-determination and render support to the Syrian government, which is clearly in the line of Arab democracy under the Western-propagated models in the post-World War II period. This suggests that Bashar's government is as democratic as the Saudi government. In other words, if the Saudi government can be supported by the democratic America, the Syrian government should, in principle, also be supported by them. Other extremes are of the opinion that Russia has not done anything wrong by launching military intervention in support of the Syrian government.  They believe that if pro-Western political activists did not try to topple the Syrian government, Syria would not have to suffer such a situation.

Bearing in mind military intervention of great powers in Syria, the global community needs to be united to prevent great powers from engaging in any war involving Syria. Any irresponsible behaviour of any country, any single firing in the warring zones within the Syrian boundary and beyond is likely to turn to a complete war, involving nuclear arsenals that may even burst into a nuclear confrontation.

History has laid the giant responsibility on the United Nations to bring all regional and global powers, especially the erstwhile superpowers, to work together to resolve the issue. If it fails in that, it falters in its mission for which it came into existence. The UN as well the global powers need to adopt sincere, transparent and pragmatic policies in order to save the world from another global devastation. The unanimity of global powers can resolve the Syrian conflict.

The writer is Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka, and currently Dean of the School of Business and Social Sciences, Sylhet International University.

Email: mramin68@yahoo.com.