Erdogan's election gamble pays off

Turkey went to polls for the second time this year on November 1 to elect a new parliament. The earlier election of June 7 produced a hung parliament. Since attempts to form a coalition government failed, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for fresh elections on November 1, 2015. 

The election came in the backdrop of two important developments within Turkey and the region. 

At the regional level, the civil war in neighbouring Syria has intensified with Russian intervention. 

Turkey is a pivotal NATO ally in the ME and its geostrategic position makes it indispensable to the West. A stable and committed Turkey is necessary for the US-led coalition to resolve the Syrian civil war. Besides, Europe badly needs Ankara's cooperation to resolve the mass exodus of Syrian refugees from Turkey to Europe. 

At the national level, the 2013 unilateral Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) ceasefire came to an end in July when Turkish jets bombed Kurdish and ISIS positions in Iraq and Syria. It was only a matter of time before ISIS and PKK would retaliate. On July 20 the bombing in Suruc, allegedly by PKK, killed 33 people. Again on October 10 the bomb attack in Ankara, supposedly by ISIS, caused 103 deaths. An atmosphere of tension and fear pervaded Turkey. 

Since the electoral process is based on proportional representation, it is important to note the percentage of votes each party obtained. Results show four parties shared the parliament seats.

Erdogan consolidated his grip over the parliament after his Justice and Development Party (AKP) secured an overall majority with 49.4 percent votes i.e. 317 seats in the 550-seat parliament. 

Secular Republican People's Party (CHP), established by Kemal Ataturk in 1923, received 25.4 percent votes -- 134 seats. It is currently the main opposition in the parliament. The far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), with 11.9 percent votes, got 40 seats. 

Surprisingly the democratic-socialist People's Democratic Party (HDP), even after a significant loss, managed 10.7 percent of votes claiming 59 seats in the new parliament. Anti-capitalist HDP vows to drive forward for Kurdish peace and end ethnic, religious and gender discrimination. Parties obtaining less than 10 percent of votes cannot claim any seat in the parliament. 

The challenge for Erdogan will be to change the parliamentary system into an American-style presidential system. It would have been easier for Erdogan if AKP had the so-called super-majority of 330 seats, which would have allowed him to call for a referendum to amend the constitution. If AKP had two-thirds majority, i.e. 367 seats, it could have amended the charter directly, without referendum. How Erdogan goes about arranging a change in the charter will be interesting to watch. 

The mood after the election was reflected in the print media. Newspapers supporting the government were euphoric calling the results "ballot box revolution", "November revolution", "magnificent victory", etc. While opposition newspaper Cumhuriyet, expressing anguish, termed it "victory of fear", the leftist newspaper Taraf said that Erdogan's "chaos plan" worked. Erdogan campaigned with the slogan "It's me or chaos". Analysts say, as the government stirred up tension, people were driven to vote for Erdogan, who promised peace and security. Security was the key issue of this election. 

AKP, economically liberal but based on traditional Islam, will now form a government without any partner for the next four years. On the domestic front, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will have the onerous task of addressing economic, ethnic and social issues. More importantly, Erdogan has to give space to the Kurds – talk to jailed Abdullah Ocalan, leader of banned PKK, to stop violence and unite the nation. Kurds constitute 18 percent of Turkey's 81 million people.

On the external front, Ankara is unlikely to change its policy towards regional countries. Erdogan will continue to support moderate anti-Assad forces in Syria. Relations with Israel will continue to remain tense, as Ankara has taken a clear stand regarding Palestinian right to a state. Erdogan's sympathy for Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood has affected relations with Egypt since the ouster of President Mohammed Morsi.

Interestingly, Europe has all along cold-shouldered Turkey's bid to join the EU, since Ankara's request in 2005. But since Europe began to face the tremendous influx of Syrian refugees from Turkey, EU offered Turkey $3.41 billion in aid and to have "re-energised" talks with Turkey on joining the bloc. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also visited Ankara in October to offer the EU "gifts". But Turkey turned them down. These sops were meant to stem the flow of refugees into Europe. 

There has been wide criticism regarding the fairness of the election. Video clips of attacks on    anti-Erdogan newspapers and journalists have been circulating on social media after the election.  

Indeed, the election results reflect that the country is now politically divided between the secularists favouring Western-style democracy and the socially conservatives wanting an Islamist-style government. Analysts fear that Erdogan, who does not tolerate opposition or criticisms, will turn into an autocrat. There is likely to be much more of a curb on press freedom and violation of basic rights.

Turkey, with strong institutions, became a model of democracy in the region when AKP won in a landslide victory in 2002. Many see Erdogan as a master politician for effectively purging the military of its meddling in politics. He has kept sectarianism under firm control. His policies have worked to make the country economically strong. Erdogan has made AKP popular not only in the countryside but also in the modern urban secular segments of society. 

One hopes that Turkey's democratic traditions will not be sullied by AKP. If Erdogan becomes Sultan of a new Ottoman, drifting away from the principles of democratic governance, he will relegate Turkey to the list of undemocratic Arab neighbours.

There is an old proverb, "A defeated wrestler always wants another match." A redoubtable Erdogan's gamble for a snap election has paid off. He has led AKP back to power. 

The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.