Long road to democracy

"It is not power that corrupts but fear. Fear of losing power corrupts those who wield it and fear of the scourge of power corrupts those who are subject to it." -- Aung Suu Kyi

ALL'S well that ends well, but we cannot say that yet with confidence about Myanmar and its iconic leader Aung Suu Kyi since the history of the country has been anything but straightforward. But so far Myanmar and Suu Kyi's quest for democracy seem to be on the right path. Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) has won enough seats in the two houses of the parliament for her party to elect the next President and form a government on its own without the need for coalition. More importantly, she has been congratulated by the current President, and her main opposition, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), has conceded defeat. 

Despite the impressive results of the elections in Suu Kyi's favour the lurking sense of discomfort arises from an unfortunate turn of events in that country following a similar massive win by Suu Kyi and her NLD some twenty-five years earlier. In the 1990 general elections NLD won more than 80 percent of parliament seats and 59 percent of total votes. But no sooner were the elections over that the military junta scrapped the elections and put Suu Kyi and several of NLD leaders behind bars. For over fifteen years she would remain either in prison, solitary confinement or house arrest, while the junta would try every means to keep both her and her party under tight control muffling any movement for democracy. 

For Suu Kyi and the people of Myanmar the wounds are too recent and are yet to heal. Even though her victory has been widely reported, and apparently been accepted by her staunchest opponents, the fears of a reprisal are not without foundation. Since its independence in 1948, the country more commonly known as Burma, saw only a brief period of popular democracy. The country has been ruled by the army since 1962 after the military staged a coup under General Ne Win. As in the case of many Asian countries in the neighbourhood a prime reason for the military's coup was weak democracy, corrupt leadership, and in Myanmar's case unabated ethnic tensions and civil wars. 

Civil wars have been a constant feature of Myanmar political landscape since independence in 1948. These wars are predominantly struggles for ethnic and sub-national autonomy, with the areas where the most dominant ethnic group Bamars reside (they represent 60 percent of total population). In fact there are two major reasons why the military was successful in holding onto power for a long period. One is the ethnicity of the military forces (who are largely Bamar), and the other is the civil wars between the ethnic Bamars and other groups. In October 2012 the number of ongoing conflicts in Myanmar included the Kachin conflict between the Pro-Christian Kachin Independence Army and the government; a conflict between the Rohingya Muslims, and the government and non-government groups in Rakhine State; and a conflict between the Shan, Lahu and Karen minority groups, and the government in the eastern half of the country. In addition, armed conflict between ethnic Chinese rebels and the Myanmar Armed Forces resulted in the Kokang offensive in February 2015. The conflict had forced 40,000 to 50,000 civilians to flee their homes and seek shelter on the Chinese side of the border. 

In 2010 the military government made an abrupt change in its total suppression of popular will. In its first ostentatious reform the military allowed general elections to its two houses of parliament albeit in a very controlled manner. The army-backed USDP formed the first civilian government through elections that were largely termed as highly manipulated by foreign observers. Yet, in the fifty-year history of Myanmar this was the first time a civilian government replaced the army junta although the new President was an Army Commander. This would pave the way for a more participatory election in 2015. 

It is still very unclear, however, what the road to democracy for Myanmar and Suu Kyi will look like even under this apparently fair election. Under the constitution the military will control twenty-five percent of the seats in both houses. And under the constitution Suu Kyi cannot become the new President even if her party elects her because the Myanmar constitution forbids anyone who has a foreign spouse or children who are foreign nationals to be elected President. Suu Kyi has two sons who were born to her British husband (now deceased). Suu Kyi has reportedly said that she would control the future government even though she cannot be President, but she did not elaborate how she would square that circle. She with her parliamentary majority cannot amend the constitution without military support, and she knows that. 

For now however, we can all gather to cheer Suu Kyi for her ultimate success in forming a government and give democracy a chance. This has been a long struggle for her and her people. She has shown her faith in her words, "When you decide to follow a certain path, you should follow it to the end and not be diverted from it for personal reasons." These are words our own politicians perhaps may do well to follow.

The writer is a political analyst and commentator.