State of emergency complicates peace process in Myanmar

PRESIDENT Thein Sein, who is a former military leader himself, declared a three-month state of emergency in the Kokang self-administered zone in the northern part of Shan state, which shares border with China's Yunnan province.

The emergency rule, which was read out in national television on February 17, came after days of clashes between the Myanmar army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA).

The fighting started on February 9 in Laukkai township when MNDAA fighters who were trying to retake the Kokang self-administered zone attacked the Myanmar army outposts near the towns of Mawhtike and Tashwehtan.

The Myanmar army resorted to airstrikes in retaliatory attacks. According to the government, more than 50 of its troops and 26 Kokang fighters have been killed, forcing thousands of civilians to flee, either to other areas in Myanmar or over the border into China.

The MNDAA, under the leadership of Phon Kya Shin, enjoyed ceasefire with the government from 1989 to 2009. The ceasefire ended when the MNDAA rejected the Myanmar government's proposal to become border guard forces under the command of the Myanmar army.

In late August 2009, the Myanmar army, with the help of some Kokang army leaders including its Deputy Chairman Bai Suoqian who were loyal to the military government, captured and occupied Laukkai.

The state of emergency means that the Myanmar military would now exercise unrestricted authority in the Kokang region—Kongkyan and Laukkai townships. The region is mostly populated by the Kokang people, a Han Chinese ethnic group.  

The imposition of military administration is a clause in the 2008 constitution which gives both executive and judicial powers to the military.

In an interesting development, Thein Sein on February 17 vowed "not to lose an inch of Myanmar's territory" and said the military was "protecting sovereignty and ensuring territorial integrity."

The intense fighting between the Myanmar army and the MNDAA comes at a time when the country is preparing to sign a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) that would pave the way for political dialogue with the ultimate goal of building a federal union for peace and national reconciliation.

While the Thein Sein government has agreed in principle to the formation of a federal union, which is aimed at granting autonomy to ethnic minorities, the declaration of emergency rule and the continued armed confrontations could hinder the peace process.

Besides the MNDAA, other ethnic armed groups such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) are yet to sign bilateral ceasefire agreements with the Myanmar government.

The violence in Kokang region is proof that there still remain challenges and issues that need to be addressed. The continued armed clashes are also evidence that there is lack of mutual trust between the Myanmar government and ethnic armed groups.

Similar to the Myanmar army's attack on a KIA cadet training center near Laiza in November 2014, which killed 23 cadets, the latest development in Kokang region is a testament of how complex and delicate the issue of ethnic minorities in Myanmar is.

Despite the continued armed confrontations, both ethnic armed groups and the government have not abandoned the negotiations over the NCA, which have been drafted by the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) and the Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC).

Without a doubt, the attack on KIA training base and the latest incident in Kokang region is a manifestation of decades-old ethno-political problems since the country's independence in 1948. Nonetheless, the peace process needs to be encouraged and supported.

To achieve the goal, there need to be both short-term and long-term strategies of approaches.

The short-term strategy should focus on critical issues hindering the signing of NCA, such as ending armed conflicts in Kachin and Shan states and building mutual trust between ethnic armed groups and the Myanmar government, especially the military. 

The long-term strategy should focus on issues pertaining to the creation of a federal union and a federal army, and post-ceasefire period of political dialogue process. The post-dialogue will have to deal with several other issues, including militarisation and demilitarisation, self-reliance and sustainability, reconstructing the economy and the involvement of citizens at the grass-root level in various aspects of the country's development.

The signing of a nationwide ceasefire agreement and holding of a political dialogue, like the one similar to the 1947 Panglong conference, should be a priority, which many had anticipated to happen on the country's union day on February 12.

History has proven that resorting to military means is not a solution to Myanmar's problems, and it will not be in the future as well.

The writer is a political scientist and general secretary of the U.S.-based Kuki International Forum.  He is the author of a book "Democracy Movement in Myanmar: Problems and Challenges."