Taliban without Mullah Omar

It was around 1994 when Islamic fundamentalist Taliban appeared in Afghanistan under Mullah Mohammad Omar.  Omar was Taliban's spiritual leader, known as its Ameer ul Mumeneen (leader of the faithful). He held the movement under extremely firm control and enforced strict interpretation of the Sharia law. He commanded unquestioned loyalty from his followers. During its time in power (1996-2001), Taliban had committed unprecedented atrocities, forcing people to flee to neighbouring countries.  

The Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is said to be the mastermind of Taliban. Pakistan probably has the deepest strategic interest in Afghanistan. The country's policy apparently was to drive out the increasingly independent Mujahideens and install a friendly Taliban government in Kabul. 

Taliban's downfall came in the wake of the 9/11 attack on the Twin Tower in New York in 2001. The US launched Operation Enduring Freedom in October 2001 and by December, Taliban was driven out of Kabul and a new government was formed under Hamid Karzai. 

Taliban members fled to the mountains and turned into an insurgent force. Over the past 15 years, the Taliban insurgency has killed hundreds of civilians and Nato soldiers.

As violence continued unabated, attempts were made to negotiate with the Taliban. In June 2010, President Karzai organised a "Peace Jirga" with a view of building a national consensus on peace talks with the Taliban. Taliban dismissed the Jirga, terming it a trick to secure the interest of foreign powers. They reiterated that there will be no talks until all foreign troops left Afghanistan. Besides, Taliban did not recognise the Karzai government and only wanted to hold discussions with the US, which they termed as "the main party in the conflict". 

With Ashraf Ghani becoming president of Afghanistan in September 2014, Pakistan felt that it was time to push Taliban for a peace deal. Ghani is considered to be friendlier towards Pakistan than his predecessor, Hamid Karzai. 

The other more compelling reason is the Chinese pressure on Pakistan and Afghanistan to resolve the 15-year old insurgency. China wants peace, as it has high stakes in the region. It is investing billions of dollars in Pakistan to develop rail and road links from Southern China to a new sea port in Pakistan. China has also invested heavily in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. Besides, China is keen to see that Islamic fundamentalism does not spread to the Xinjiang province, where it is trying to contain Uighur militants. 

At Pakistan's initiative, the first round of talks between the Afghan government and Taliban took place on July 7, 2015 at Murree, in the presence of US and Chinese government representatives. The second round was scheduled to take place on July 31, 2015. 

Interestingly, just two days before the second round, the office of the Afghan president announced on  July 29 that Mullah Omar was dead. Actually it was Pakistan that informed Kabul about the Taliban chief's death in Karachi in April 2013. Earlier speculation that Mullah Omar had died, since he was not seen in public for several years, was never confirmed.

What is incredible is the way Taliban conducted themselves even after Omar's demise in 2013. A well-trained clique of mullahs orchestrated the myth of Omar for two years and kept the movement unified. Every decision was issued in the name of Mullah Omar. Taliban fighters never knew or realised that Omar was dead. Taliban is in an awkward situation now that the myth has been broken.  

Pakistan seems to have two objectives for breaking the news - to weaken the Taliban leadership and to keep the new leaders under its influence. Omar's deputy Mullah Muhammad Akhtar Mansoor was immediately announced as the Emir of the fundamentalist group. 

Pakistan now has a difficult job at hand. First, it has to keep Taliban united by containing the power struggle and stopping it from splintering into rival factions. There are serious personal, tribal and strategic rivalries among the field commanders. Several leaders have already staked their claim as the head of Taliban. 

Second, Pakistan has to make Taliban understand that it is no longer a'religious war' and fighting the Afghan military will not bring them to power.

Third, Pakistan has to make sure that the leadership issue is quickly resolved. And a leader, who commands loyalty of major factions, is ushered to the negotiating table to conclude a workable deal with Ashraf Ghani. So far, Taliban leaders were not sure whether to join the peace talks or keep fighting. 

Finally, Pakistan has to undertake some serious confidence building measures with Kabul. President Ashraf Ghani, who is keen to stop the bloodletting, is still not sure whether Pakistan really wants the insurgency to cease or if it has other motives. 

Taliban's proclaimed aim was to rid Afghanistan of all foreign forces. Taliban, however, never declared any intention to spread its movement beyond Afghanistan.   

The fear is that Islamic State (ISIS) has already made its presence in Afghanistan. The worry is that without the firm control of Mullah Omar, disgruntled Taliban fighters may join the ISIS. That could lead to a new kind of war that no one has yet witnessed in South Asia.

Afghanistan's history is a narrative of wars. The news of Mullah Omar's death has already put the peace process on hold. All stakeholders need to work for durable peace in this devastated land.

The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.