TALK THE TALK

After the 1965 Indo-Pakistan war, the then Soviet Union brokered a peace agreement at Tashkent. Russia has again taken the initiative to hold bilateral discussions between the two nuclear power rivals of South Asia, India and Pakistan, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Russia on July 10.

The leaders of India and Pakistan reportedly exchanged views on issues of bilateral and regional interest over a phone call initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and agreed that India and Pakistan have a collective responsibility to fight terrorism in South Asia.

After the meeting, a six-point joint statement was issued and both countries agreed on a meeting in New Delhi between the two security agencies to discuss all issues connected to terrorism and early meetings of DG BSF and DG Pakistan Rangers followed by that of DG Military Operations. The statement also expressed the decision to release fishermen, along with their boats, of each country from the neighbouring country's custody within 15 days. It mentioned the need for a mechanism for facilitating religious tourism, and both sides agreed to discuss ways and means to expedite the Mumbai case trial, including additional information like providing voice samples.

To strengthen their growing relationship, PM Modi also accepted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's invitation to visit Pakistan for the SAARC Summit in 2016.

The above agreement is considered a big leap forward in their relations given some of the past developments since the Modi government came into power.

When Nawaz Sharif had been in New Delhi at Narendra Modi's invitation of his swearing-in ceremony last year, it was hoped that relations between the two countries would improve. Instead relations deteriorated in August after India cancelled talks with Pakistan after accusing it of interfering in its internal affairs. Modi and Sharif last met at the SAARC summit in Kathmandu in November 2014, but did not hold formal talks.  

In 2014, according to available figures provided by the Indian army, there was a 158 percent increase in cease-fire violations by Pakistan and last year has seen the highest cease-fire violations targeting civilian areas and forward border posts along the LoC and international border. There have also been counter-claims of Indian violations of the LOC by Pakistan. Furthermore, Pakistan alleges India aids separatist rebels in its province of Balochistan and fears India could cut off its rivers at source, turning the country into a veritable wasteland.

Good relations with India will trigger growth of Pakistan's economy while energy could be provided by India to Lahore at a very cost-effective rate, say experts. Apart from attracting foreign investment, this growth could lead to more markets and locations for productions, thereby increasing employment opportunities for Pakistan.

A Pew survey found that 53 percent of the respondents in Pakistan chose India as the greater threat to their country, and only 26 percent chose the Taliban and al-Qaeda. At the same time 72 percent said it was important to improve relations with India, and about 75 percent wanted more trade relations and discussions with India.

Observers say that progress in relations may likely to depend on the Pakistan army and how the Pakistani military leadership assesses the impact of the agreements made by Sharif with Modi. It is noted that the China-Pakistan relationship casts a shadow on the Indo-Pakistan relationship. Pakistan needs China for its security, and China needs Pakistan to counterbalance the growing influence of India.

Given the above factors, the relations between India and Pakistan in the past resembled a see-saw. While highs in their relationship were observed at times, more often than not, situations forced bilateral relations to take a step back. Many analysts say that even the recent talks were not substantive, but rather 'talks about talks'. So this was not really a dialogue but a discussion on a dialogue.

Poverty in South Asia is a massive problem. More than two-thirds of the world's poor live in Asia, and nearly half of them are in South Asia. South Asian countries will have to ensure food, water, and energy to a growing population. Besides, they have to deal with poverty removal, and the crisis of demography, debt, climate change, good governance and corruption. South Asian regional cooperation is imperative to address these issues.

There is a saying that a leader is he who knows the way, goes the way and shows the way. Will these two prime ministers exhibit these attributes as leaders in the near future?

The writer is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.