The changing world order

The year 2016 was a defining period for America with Donald Trump entering the White House. With the rise of populist parties all over Europe, 2017 will probably be the same for the old continent.  

Emboldened by the Brexit referendum in June 2016, Eurosceptics and radical neo-Nazi parties have reemerged in Europe with enthusiasm. Donald Trump's victory in the US elections in November 2016 also provided a strong tailwind to these ultra-nationalists in Europe. These populist parties are firmly Eurosceptic, anti-establishment, anti-Muslim, xenophobic, anti-globalisation, and believe in isolationist nationalism.

Voters in Europe are exasperated because the traditional parties have failed to address unemployment and austerity, and have allowed a record number of Muslim refugees to enter their communities. After the terrorist attacks in France, Belgium and Germany in 2016, voters are totally disillusioned with the conventional parties. 

As three important elections are due in 2017, four far right parties of Europe got together in Koblenz, Germany on January 21, 2017 for a "counter-summit" to discuss their "visions for Europe of Freedom" and dismantling the European Union. The four leaders were – Marine Le Pen of Front Nationale (FN) of France; Frauke Petry of the anti-immigration movement, Alternative for Germany (AfD), in Germany; Geert Wilders, the virulent anti-Muslim Dutch leader of the far right Freedom Party (PVV); and Matteo Salvini of Italy's Northern League, who wants to quit the Euro zone. All are members of the Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) group in the European Parliament. The common denominator for these neo-Nazi leaders is anti-Muslim-immigrant sentiments of voters.

The Netherlands goes for general elections on March 15, 2017 to elect 150 members of the House of Representatives. If the opinion polls are right, Geert Wilders has a fair chance of elbowing out pro-Europe Prime Minister Mark Rutte's People's Party. Wilders' victory would mean Dutch polity going back on liberalism, closing the door to Muslim immigrants and walking out of the EU. At the conference, Wilder highlighting the dangers posed by Muslim immigrants said, "… all the established parties are promoting our Islamisation … people have become strangers in their own land…"

France goes for presidential elections on April 23, 2017. The French elections will be extremely important for the future of the European Union. Ultra-nationalist Marine Le-Pen, openly supported and funded by Russia, is vehemently anti-Brussels. Her chances to be president appear bright as Republican candidate Francois Fillon is embroiled in a financial scam. Le Pen wants Europeans to "wake-up" and has said, "The Brussels wall will have to come down just like the Berlin wall came down … The EU, this oppressive model … should not last more than two minutes". She also called for cooperation with Russia and wants Europe to withdraw from NATO.

Germany also goes for federal parliamentary (Bundestag) elections on September 24, 2017.  Angela Merkel will run for the fourth term as chancellor. She will be challenged by AfD, which made good gains in recent local elections. Merkel has come under severe criticism for her open door policy to immigrants from the Middle East. If Frauke Petry's AfD wins, she would certainly reverse Merkel's pro-Europe policies. Addressing her colleagues Frauke remarked, "Together with the parties represented here, we want a subsidiary Europe of free Fatherlands".  

There is a great deal of similarity in the statements of these European leaders to what Donald Trump has been saying in America. Essentially the foothold of popularity of ultra-nationalist parties is based on voters' ignorance, fear and anger. Ignorance about socio-political realities drives voters to be sceptic. The fear is that Muslim migrants would destroy the Christian identity of European societies. The anger stems from economic mismanagement by the traditional parties.  

Nationalism, born in Europe, is returning to the continent with vengeance. The elections will essentially be referendums on European liberalism. Victory of the extreme right parties in the elections would mean a tectonic shift in European politics. European values of multiculturalism, progressiveness and openness may succumb to a chauvinistic version of nationalism based on crude self-interest, which is similar to Trump's narrow nationalism based on ethnicity. 

When a nation discards liberalism, it goes down the slippery slope of ultra-nationalism and militarisation of politics. The rise of nationalist parties will no doubt break the EU and pose a threat to the world. A belligerent Trump thinks that a disintegrated Europe is a good development, while European leaders say that Trump is the third threat after radical Islam and Vladimir Putin. Didn't the upsurge of Westphalian sovereignty in 1930s eventually lead to the Second World War? Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev did warn that the world is preparing for war.

After Donald Trump's Muslim ban and the rise of ultra-right parties in Europe playing on anti-Muslim sentiments, it appears that the clash of civilisations has after all come to a head.  But isn't this refugee migration the creation of the West? Hasn't the West-imposed wars on the Middle East and North Africa that have totally destroyed the socio-religious fabric of Muslim civilisation in these parts of the world? The result - millions are now at the doors of the West as refugees. 

The Western world, as we know it, is on the threshold of a catalytic upheaval. It actually stands on two geopolitical pillars - America and Europe - both having liberal democracies as political and capitalistic systems of economies. The American pillar is already on shaky grounds as Donald Trump has set out to fundamentally change the country's liberal political underpinnings with his raw isolationist nationalism. And if these neo-Nazi parties win the elections in Europe, the other pillar will also crumble. 

Will political changes in Europe be the beginning of the end of the existing world order that was established following WWII? Is it the turn of Europe to usher in a new world order?

The writer is a former ambassador and secretary.