Ten years delay in oil-gas exploration a testament to short-sightedness and ineptitude
Dr Badrul Imam, energy expert and retired professor of Dhaka University's Department of Geology speaks to Golam Mortoza of The Daily Star about the overall procedure of oil-gas exploration in Bangladesh, its reserve situation, and export opportunities.
You have always opined that we should give more focus to oil-gas exploration on both land and sea. After almost a decade, it seems the matter is getting some importance. What is your view in this regard?
I think we are already too late. If you look at the last 10 years, since 2012, we haven't done much regarding the ocean. Our huge and resourceful sea has a lot of potential. Both Myanmar and India have discovered gas there. We stayed mostly idle. I always find this decision illogical. One of our biggest weaknesses in the gas sector is that we have not utilised our vast sea.
Finally, we are taking some initiatives. It's better late than never. Now that we have started, we should move forward properly. If we could have started this initiative five years ago, then by now we would have gotten some gas supply. The exploration just started; it will take a long time before we get the gas from the sea.
International organisations have been asked to submit their tenders. How long do you think the entire process might take for us to get gas?
It will take at least five years to get it. Tender seeking, acceptance, and initiation of the process—all that will take at least one and a half years. The bid-winning firm will take another year for the initial preparations. After that, they would eventually head towards the sea. Two more years will be needed to do the survey, exploration, and excavation. After these steps, we can start talking about getting gas. Even when the gas is identified, we will have to set up pipelines to bring it in. That will take some more time.
This is why I keep asking, why did we sit idle for 10 years? We marked our sea borders in 2021. Myanmar and India finished their work in 2014. Now we have to pay for sitting idle for a decade.
What could be the reasons for sitting idle like that?
There's no reason. It is just another example of short-sightedness and ineptitude.
Both Myanmar and India identified huge amounts of gas underwater. We might also get a similar amount. Foreign firms usually extract and sell the gas quickly and leave with the proceeds. Sometimes they sell it to other countries, in which case, how useful will it be for Bangladesh?
Bangladesh's gas cannot be exported—this must be a properly documented red-line condition. No matter what the circumstances, there should never be a scope for exporting this gas. However, in the tender document, it has been mentioned that if the extracted gas is not bought or used by Bangladesh, it can be exported. It is better not to write this. However, the oil-gas extracting organisations put pressure to include it. Because, when they go for bank loans, the bank demands to keep an option for export in the organisation's working plan.
However, our reality is different, because we do not have anything else. As long as Bangladesh needs it, we have to use this source. The demand is rising exponentially and the supply is dwindling. Thus, even if we increase the supply, it will never be able to match the demand. Thus, a certain amount of LNG import must continue.
The amount of gas that we are expecting to extract may not be needed immediately. We may be able to use it for years. However, the foreign firm might want to get it extracted as fast as possible so that it can maximise its profits.
We have to keep the production low. We don't have to extract it all in one go. If needed, we will take 10 years to extract the amount of gas that could have been extracted in a year.
Would the foreign firm agree to this condition?
It's a logical question. However, we have to strike a balance here. If the foreign firm is given the liberty to extract and sell as much as it wants, that's one thing. However, to uphold the nation's interests, the contract can specify that gas extraction should be as per the nation's demand levels. They will conduct business, but the pace will be slower. Such contracts are signed across the globe and international firms are also aware of the logic behind it. However, whether we can make them agree to it or not solely depends on our negotiation skills.
We made the right call by focusing on gas extraction. However, it will not be wise to quickly extract and deplete this source. Extraction should be as per demand, and the extracted gas should not be exported under any circumstances.
Will Bangladesh buy gas from foreign firms as per the international market value set in dollars?
Yes, the gas price will be determined per the international crude oil price. Currently, the crude oil price is $80. Thus, each unit of gas will be sold at $8. The gas price will go up and down as per the crude oil price.
Was there a survey done to determine the amount of gas reserves in the different blocks of Bangladesh's sea borders?
Some general surveys were conducted, but no information was available regarding the specific amount. However, as a whole, it can be said that compared to the western blocks, the eastern blocks may contain a higher amount of gas. Thus, foreign firms are more interested in the eastern blocks.
These blocks are adjacent to Myanmar. As Myanmar explored a huge amount of gas, it is being assumed that we will also find a large amount in our blocks.
Is there an opportunity to only allow extraction from a few blocks instead of all of them?
Yes, we can permit extraction from only a few blocks. It depends on the government's decision.
The government keeps on stressing that foreign firms will not show interest unless they are allowed to export.
This depends on the negotiations completely. Bangladesh needs a lot of gas, so why can't the government explain this to the foreign firm? No matter how much gas they extract, it will not meet our demand. We don't have any other form of fuel. We run everything on gas. Thus, the foreign firm should not be afraid of the fact that we might not buy the gas they extract and they will need to export to make a profit.
Did Myanmar and India only get gas from their blocks, or did they get oil as well?
They mainly discovered gas. A small amount of oil exists here, but it is inadequate.
Foreign firms surveyed our blocks. Do you know about their findings?
TGS did some surveys. Bangladesh commissioned a survey work where TGS jointly worked with another US-based firm. They will now sell this survey report to other firms so that they can quickly go for gas exploration. This report would be handed over to Bangladesh and sold to other foreign firms.
So, Bangladesh doesn't know yet the exact amount of gas contained within the blocks?
No, we don't. Such a survey has not been conducted. TGS's survey is a basic one. Until the excavation starts, it cannot be said what amount of gas exists. The initial survey gave us a possibility. Now we have to get the precise information by excavating.
You have placed a similar emphasis on land-based sources. Recently we found gas in the third well in Sundalpur. Is the current pace of land-based gas extraction satisfactory?
It is not being emphasised enough. We have been saying for a long time that the Chittagong hill tracts have a lot of potential, but not enough development is taking place. In a way, we can say that it is getting focused—there's a plan to excavate a well within three years. Previously, there were no plans to excavate so many wells. Now it is going on in a big way.
Now we must see whether all the plans get implemented or not, because there was another plan in 2015-16 for excavating 100 wells, but the plan got scrapped after only a few wells were excavated.
BAPEX can excavate wells and extract gas for much cheaper. Still, while excavating wells, Gazprom or other firms get priority over it. Are we still following this policy?
Yes, this policy has not been changed. BAPEX does not get priority. BAPEX has a lot of potential. We have to firmly support it, as it can do a lot.
Translated from Bangla by Mohammed Ishtiaque Khan
Views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not reflect those of any organisation, institution or entity with which he is associated.
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