Achieving a just society in the next 50 years

Throughout 2021, we have been celebrating 50 years of Bangladesh's independence, with a lot of glory and pride. We are fortunate to have a country of our own as many people around the world are still struggling for a country of their own even today. We are immensely grateful for the sacrifice made by the freedom fighters who fought to liberate the country during the nine months of war in 1971. We have deep gratitude towards Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who led Bangladesh's war for independence.

This war was to liberate Bangladesh from the economic, social, political and cultural dominance of Pakistan. The Liberation War was influenced by the ethos to establish a country where the underlying philosophy of development policies were equity and justice. Independence was about achieving democratic, economic, social and cultural rights. Following our independence, the aspirations of the people of Bangladesh were articulated eloquently in our constitution.

After Bangladesh's liberation in 1971, we inherited a poor and undiversified economy. It was predominantly an agricultural economy with low productivity. It had underdeveloped industrial and services sectors, a rapidly growing population, low education and skill, and poor infrastructure. Due to decades of British and Pakistani colonial exploitation, the economy was stuck in a vicious cycle of poverty. Low levels of income, savings and investment were resulting in a low growth. On top of these, the war had caused serious damage to the economy.

Despite such unfavourable circumstances and resource constraints, Bangladesh has made spectacular economic and social progress over the last five decades. The growth rate of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been impressive. On average, Bangladesh's GDP has risen from about three percent in the 1970s, to seven percent in the 2010s, and crossed eight percent just before Covid-19 hit the country. Though the pandemic has slowed the GDP growth, it is projected to catch up faster than other countries. High growth has pushed per capita income upwards by 23 times in 2020 from the level in 1973.

The characteristics of a modern economy—that is, the transition from agricultural dependence to industry and service sector-based growth—is also being observed gradually. Currently, the share of agriculture in Bangladesh's GDP is about 13 percent, while that of the industry and services sectors are about 35 and 52 percent, respectively. The economy has also been integrated with the global economy. Shares of exports, imports and remittances in GDP have increased over time. High imports are possible through impressive remittance flow. On the other hand, dependence on foreign aid to undertake development work has declined by almost half in terms of its share in GDP in 2020 from that in 1973, indicating a more self-reliant growth effort.

Economic progress has impacted the citizens' social lives positively, on many counts. Population below the poverty line has declined from more than 80 percent in the early 1970s to 24.2 percent in 2016. Life expectancy has increased by more than one and half times since 1973. Maternal mortality has declined by almost four times and child mortality by about five times now since the 80s. And there are many more visible progresses, of which we are proud.

The recognition of such progress has come from several organisations. In February 2021, Bangladesh, for the second time, fulfilled all three criteria to graduate from the group of least developed countries to that of developing countries. The United Nations has recommended Bangladesh's graduation by 2026. In 2018, Bangladesh met these criteria for the first time. Besides, in 2015, Bangladesh became a lower middle-income country from a low-income country, according to the World Bank.

Enabling national and international policies, and the hard work and resilience of Bangladeshi people have transformed the economy into one of the fast-paced economies in the world. It could withstand domestic and global challenges such as political unrest, natural calamity, and global financial meltdown. More recently, the economic fallout due to Covid-19 has been much less in Bangladesh than many countries. But such complacency should not get into our heads, because any economy which stands on weak footings and is characterised by high inequality, low job creation, poor governance, corruption, and low efficiency cannot sustain its progress for long.

While we rejoice at the achievements since our independence, we have also observed many missed opportunities. The fruits of the progress are yet to be distributed equally to each and every citizen. Despite steady progress in several areas, the promise of an equitable and just society has remained unfulfilled. Income inequality persists as resources and wealth are concentrated among a few people in society, many of whom are politically connected. The nexus between politics and business is stronger than ever before. It is now a two-way relationship in Bangladesh. Politicians are now turning into businesspersons by using power to enjoy wealth and luxury, while businesspersons are turning into politicians to enjoy the power that is attached to it. In the process, the whole objective of serving the people as their representatives has become blurred as this is often a secondary objective of many politicians. Bangladesh is now a country where the number of ultra-rich people is increasing fast. The experience so far is that, as economic prosperity of the country has increased, inequality has risen as well. This is reflected both through Gini coefficient and Palma ratio, which economists use to measure inequality.

Therefore, the macroeconomic numbers are only a part of the full story. The GDP may continue to grow, and per capita income may also rise, but they mean nothing in the end, particularly for those who live on the edge of vulnerability. This is not only because the process of estimating GDP and per capita income is faulty and provides an incomplete picture, but also because, in the absence of major enablers of economic progress, such as participatory development process, growth will continue to suffer from disillusionment. Studies indicate that if political and economic institutions are inclusive and pluralistic, everyone will have incentives to invest and success follows. However, nations find it difficult to succeed if institutions protect the political and economic interests of a small group of powerful people.

On the occasion of Bangladesh's golden jubilee, as we celebrate the achievements made by our country, we also have to bear in mind that the sacrifice of our freedom fighters can only be meaningful if tangible change in the lives of the poorest and common citizens takes place. This requires an inclusive democratic and development process. Participation of the broader section of people in the economic and political process can make the 50 years of economic progress meaningful. During elections, a lot of promises are made by the aspirant public representatives. However, following the elections, one does not see much of those promises fulfilled. The accountability of the political representatives is weak with little monitoring on the fulfilment of their commitments.

Therefore, in the next 50 years, we have to work towards consolidating what has been achieved so far and improve upon where we are lagging behind. Our golden jubilee celebration may come to a close formally by the end of 2021, but we want to celebrate Bangladesh's achievement each and every day. This is possible if we engage ourselves to accomplish the unfulfilled dreams of making Bangladesh a just and equal society.

Dr Fahmida Khatun is the executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).