Tensions in the Middle East are reaching a boiling point, with Israel leveraging the Gaza War to open new fronts of conflict, including with Iran. The rogue state has made multiple provocative overtures to goad Iran and its allies in the region into action. Israel has intentionally targeted officials of Iran's feared military wing, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), across multiple regional locations, resulting in the assassination of IRGC senior commander Sayyed Razi Mousavi in December 2023, and that of five IRGC military advisors earlier this week. In an attack in Beirut, Israel also killed senior Hamas commander Saleh al-Arouri earlier this month.

Southern Lebanon is also being showered by constant Israeli strikes, killing civilians and Hezbollah fighters alike and displacing thousands. As of January 22, the death toll in Lebanon stood at 200. According to the International Organization for Migration, more than 83,000 Lebanese have been displaced.

In the face of such provocations, while Iran has so far demonstrated restraint and caution in its retaliation—only engaging in precise, targeted strikes at Israeli or US sites to fend them off—the recent killing of IRGC officials in Syria has elicited ominous response from the regional superpower: "The Islamic Republic will not leave the Zionist regime's crimes unanswered," Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi said, adding that the response would be "at the appropriate time and place." Soon after, Iran struck a US airbase in Iraq's Erbil, leaving some US soldiers injured.

Netanyahu is now buying time: for Donald Trump to make a comeback as the US president in the November election, which will make it easier for him to get the US to engage fully in a Middle East war as the hawkish Trump is no friend of the Iranians or of the Palestinians for that matter. And, given his volatile temperament and past records, he may not think twice before making a rash, albeit irreversible, decision.

The significant spike in missile attacks across the greater Middle East has alarmed security experts, who fear this could escalate into a full-scale war with Iran and the US, both asserting their power and influence in the region. The situation is so volatile that on January 20, within a span of hours, four countries came under air strikes: Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq—all shelled as part of low-intensity conflicts, as an extension of the genocide unleashed in Gaza by Israel, armed and empowered by the US. Amidst such chaos and cacophony of frequent airstrikes, one single misfiring could shove the entire region towards a bloody, large-scale war that would leave thousands of dead bodies in the trail and change the course of the region's geopolitical developments for the worse.

While Israel's aggressive ambitions in the Middle East are known to all, the question remains: is the state's desire for dominance in the region the only factor behind wanting to take the war to Iran?

A closer look at the internal political developments in Israel suggests that, perhaps, there is a more cowardly reason behind it trying to initiate new conflicts in the region: Netanyahu's last-ditch attempt to extend the war, to salvage whatever is left of his political career. With multiple corruption charges facing him, and in the wake of mounting unpopularity, Netanyahu is well aware that there is little possibility of him getting out of this quagmire of his own making. The people are frustrated with his misadventures: 53 percent of Israelis reportedly feel that Tel Aviv was unable to defeat Hamas, while 22 percent believe that the war is already lost. Netanyahu's constant refusal to free the hostages for a ceasefire has made him extremely detested by the people who want him out of office or even behind bars. Amidst these developments, Bibi's so-called war cabinet has also organically disintegrated, and he is under increasing pressure from the US to minimise civilian casualties, which seems to not be in his personal interest.

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In the eyes of the world, Israel has lost

Netanyahu sees the complete demolition of Gaza and its subsequent takeover by Israel—as has been made evident by his outright refusal of a US-envisioned two-state solution post the Gaza War—as his only means to save his career. But for this to happen, Netanyahu first needs to ensure that he stays in office for now by expanding the scope and scale of the Gaza War. As with most war-mongering leaders, Bibi uses the fear of war to coerce people into submission, which—now more than ever—would secure his position as the war commander of the state.

What is more, Netanyahu is now buying time: for Donald Trump to make a comeback as the US president in the November election, which will make it easier for him to get the US to engage fully in a Middle East war as the hawkish Trump is no friend of the Iranians or of the Palestinians for that matter. And, given his volatile temperament and past records, he may not think twice before making a rash, albeit irreversible, decision. The Biden administration must see the folly in pursuing the Gaza War or the low-intensity, high-potential conflicts in the Middle East, and must persuade Israel to back off.

Instead of attacking the Houthis and arming Israel, the US administration should now focus on salvaging its own reputation and legacy, which is increasingly being labelled by the people as being of a genocide enabler. Attacking the Houthis or Iranian interests will only result in more bloodshed and chaos, and Biden can do better in last-minute cleaning up of his image by preventing further bloodshed in the region. The Saudis, Egypt, and Jordan—long-standing US allies in the region—do not want an escalation of the crisis. Even the US has little to gain except adding another name to the growing list of its travesties in the Middle East.

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Attacks on Yemen could open Middle East’s pandora’s box

Iran has been reckless in retaliating against the Israeli provocations. It must understand the power it holds in the region and should focus on channelling that to reach a permanent political solution to the Palestinian statehood crisis via strategic diplomatic moves. It will not be in the interest of Iran, its allies, or of Palestinians should Iran make itself the centre of the Middle East conflict, overshadowing the Palestine issue. The Russian government, the Qataris, and even the Saudis are engaged in dialogue with Iran to find a permanent solution to the Palestine-Israel conflict. Iran must proceed with caution so as not to lose this position of influence.

Israel is no doubt playing with fire in stoking the Iranian furnace of wrath. An escalation will not be desirable for Israel either, as it will be required to combat greater existential threats. Israel's only chance of securing legitimacy and acceptance in the Middle East, and ensuring a secure and safe state for its people, will be by supporting and enabling a separate, independent state for Palestinians, which is their basic right.

While Netanyahu will try his heart and soul to salvage his political career at the cost of peace in the Middle East, Iran and the US should take the moral high ground and prevent more innocent lives from being lost to satisfy one man's nefarious desperation and greed.

Tasneem Tayeb is a columnist for The Daily Star. Her X handle is @tasneem_tayeb

Views expressed in the article are the author's own.

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