The good and the bad omens for Bangladesh ahead of Kanpur Test

There are some positive signs and a few ill omens for Bangladesh ahead of their second and final Test against hosts India, beginning tomorrow in Kanpur. 

The Najmul Hossain Shanto-led Bangladesh will be hoping to bounce back from a 280-run hammering, received in the first Test in Chennai last week, when they step onto the Green Park stadium for their final World Test Championship fixture of the tour tomorrow. 

Given the speculations that the surface at the Green Park stadium will be anything but green -- as per reports from Indian media outlets that the surface to be used in the second Test will have a covering of black soil, aiding spinners more -- Bangladesh can take hope from the fact that a number of their batters have had comparatively better success against spinners than their Indian counterparts in the longer format in recent time. 

Considering the middle and lower-middle order (from position 4-8) of the two sides' batting line-up from the last Test in Chennai, only India batter Rishabh Pant has fared better against spinners than any of the Bangladesh batters in Tests since 2022. 

Pant, who usually approaches any format in an aggressive mindset and is unafraid of using his feet against spinners, averaged 60.62 against spinners since 2022. His staggering strike rate of 117.43 against spinners during this period is also the highest among any batters in the two sides' current squad. 

However, apart from Pant, the other Indian batters who bat in the middle and lower-middle order have not fared better than Bangladesh's batters who batted in the same position in Tests since 2022. During this period, the likes of Virat Kohli (32.78 avg), KL Rahul (21.87 avg), Ravindra Jadeja (39.2 avg), and Ravichandran Ashwin (25.35 avg) have had tougher times against spinners compared to Liton Das (56.44 avg), Shakib Al Hasan (46.33 avg), and Mushfiqur Rahim (46.21 avg). 

Only Mominul Haque (32.18 avg), who usually bats at number four, and Mehedi Hasan Miraz (35.20 avg) down the order have had batting averages below 40 against spinners in Tests since 2022.

Even Bangladesh skipper Shanto, who has been trusted with the crucial number three position in Tests for a while now, has had a healthy 40.69 average against spinners while India captain Rohit Sharma struggled with a 35.13 average against spinners during this period. 

Bangladesh are also likely to have better success with spin against two of India's stalwarts -- skipper Rohit and Kohli. It marked Kohli's 14th dismissal against a spinner in his last 19 innings when the star batter was trapped in front by off-spinner Miraz in the Chennai Test. 

In fact, off-spinners have been particularly effective against Kohli, dismissing him eight times in his last 17 innings. 

Meanwhile, Rohit, who was dismissed by pacers Hasan Mahmud and Taskin Ahmed in the two innings in the Chennai Test, has fallen prey to both off-spinners and left-arm orthodox bowlers seven times in his last 17 innings.  
  
However, the Tigers will have to be wary against the Indian top-order, particularly against Yashasvi Jaiswal and Shubman Gill. Jaiswal, who has played only 10 Tests since making his debut against the West Indies in July 2023, has played spinners with ease in the longer format, averaging 114.66. 

Gill, meanwhile, has averaged 50.12 in the 31 innings he batted against spinners in his Test career so far.   

Given what the statistics suggest, it would probably bode well for the Tigers if the pacers could claim the wickets of the Gill-Jiaswal duo before they get settled on a track that is suggested to aid the spinners more as time goes on.

The most concerning factor for Bangladesh, however, would be if India decide to bolster their spin arsenal by including left-arm wrist spinner Kuldeep Yadav for the game in Kanpur. 

While left-arm wrist spinners are a rare breed in cricket and players very rarely have to encounter such a bowler, one particular fact could give everyone a clear idea as to how the Tigers might fare against Yadav. 

Bangladesh are the worst team when it comes to negotiating leg-spin in Tests, losing a wicket in every 48 deliveries. 

South Africa fare the best against leg-spinners in Tests, surviving 75 deliveries before giving a wicket to a leggie. Following suit in this regard are: India (74 deliveries for each wicket), New Zealand (73 deliveries for each wicket), Australia (70 deliveries for each wicket), England (67 deliveries for each wicket), Pakistan (64 deliveries for each wicket), Sri Lanka (63 deliveries for each wicket), Zimbabwe (60 deliveries for each wicket), Afghanistan (57 deliveries for each wicket) and Ireland (49 deliveries for each wicket).

A number of possibilities as well as concerns pop up when statistics are brought into the equation. But it does not change the fact that the game would be won by the side that will be able to play better cricket on the day.

Bangladesh might be miles behind India when it comes to strengths in the longer format, but some of the positive statistics might just help boost the Tigers' confidence ahead of facing the number two side in the ICC Test rankings at their den.