Women's T20 WC: Australia all but confirm semi spot but Tigresses need big miracle

The qualification scenario for the semifinals of the ICC Women's T20 World Cup 2024 is becoming clearer by the day, although no team is yet certain of a spot in the final four.

Australia's nine-wicket win over Pakistan at the Women's T20 World Cup on Friday put them on the brink of qualification, and their beaten opponents aren't completely out of the running yet either. Meanwhile, Bangladesh would need more than a miracle to make it into semis. 

Here's how the two groups are shaping up, with some big matches on the horizon.

Group A

Australia (6 points | +2.786 NRR)

Alyssa Healy's side are favourites to win the tournament, but will be sweating on the fitness of their captain, who limped off in the win over Pakistan.

The six-time champions are three from three and all-but confirmed of a semi-final spot, with a significant swing required to deny Australia a top-two finish.

For that to happen they would need to lose extremely heavily to India while New Zealand must also win their two remaining matches by an extremely large combined margin to leapfrog them on NRR.

India (4 points | +0.576 NRR)

India's hammering of Sri Lanka has given them a big chance of reaching the semi-finals even after their disappointing opening loss to New Zealand.

The huge net run rate boost that Harmanpreet Kaur's side gained in their win on Wednesday means that they may not need to beat Australia in their final group fixture, depending on results elsewhere.

But even if they do need a win over the defending champions, it is now highly unlikely to be by a significant margin, as had looked possible prior to their trouncing of Sri Lanka in Dubai.

New Zealand (2 points | -0.050 NRR)

The White Ferns have gone from boom to bust in their opening two matches, delivering a statement performance to beat India in their opening game, before slipping to a demoralising loss against Australia.

The 60-run margin of defeat against their neighbours saw New Zealand undo their net run rate advantage, but they remain firmly in contention to qualify for the knockout stage, with matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan still to come.

Pakistan (2 points | -0.488 NRR)

Pakistan's opening-day win over Sri Lanka blew this group wide open, but their tournament has struggled to live up to those heady heights since.

It is still possible that they can qualify, but they must hope that Australia beat India on Sunday and then they themselves must beat New Zealand in their final group game by enough of a margin to end the group with a higher net run rate than any of the teams tied on four points - a very difficult but not insurmountable task as things currently stand.

Sri Lanka (0 points | -2.564 NRR)

Sri Lanka were one of the form teams coming into this tournament and had enjoyed victories against a host of higher-ranked nations in the last 18 months.

And so the failure to compete in Group A will be hugely frustrating for Chamari Athapaththu and her side.

Confidence was in short supply in Wednesday's third defeat to India, a result that means Sri Lanka are unable to make it out of the group, and they will round off their campaign against New Zealand on Saturday.

Remaining fixtures in Group A
New Zealand v Sri Lanka – Saturday 12 October (4:00pm Bangladesh time), Sharjah Cricket Stadium

India v Australia – Sunday 13 October (8:00pm Bangladesh time), Sharjah Cricket Stadium

Pakistan v New Zealand – Monday 14 October (8:00pm Bangladesh time), Dubai International Cricket Stadium

Group B

West Indies (4 points | +1.708 NRR)

The West Indies are a dangerous proposition when they click with the bat, and have the top-order power to take down the best in the world.

Defeat to South Africa in their opening match was a huge setback for their qualification hopes, and yet the power game of Hayley Matthews' side has seen them blast back into contention with two mammoth wins over Scotland and Bangladesh.

England await in their last group match – a fixture that closes Group B – and West Indies will know precisely what they need before a ball is bowled. It is yet possible that they could even progress with a defeat against the English, should Bangladesh beat South Africa, such is the superiority of their NRR.

South Africa (4 points | +1.527)

South Africa's crushing win over Scotland gives them a huge boost in search of a qualifying spot for the semi-finals.

The margin of that victory means the Proteas have the best NRR in the group, and leaves them in a strong position despite the loss to England.

A win over Bangladesh in their final game may well be enough, barring further dramatic NRR swings.

England (4 points | +0.653 NRR)

England are in control of Group B after starting their campaign with two wins, including victory over South Africa in a rematch of the 2023 semi-final.

Heather Knight's side will be confident of qualifying from this position and one more win could be enough.

Bangladesh (2 points | -0.835 NRR)

Bangladesh ended a decade-long wait for a win at an ICC Women's T20 World Cup in the tournament opener against Scotland.

But that result feels a long time ago after two straight losses, including a heavy defeat to West Indies that will likely be terminal to the Tigresses hopes of qualifying for the semi-finals.

Such is their net run rate disadvantage in the group that even an enormous margin of victory against South Africa – a team they have beaten just twice in 14 total meetings – could be insufficient.

Scotland (0 points | -2.671 NRR) - Unable to qualify

Scotland are making their first-ever appearance at an ICC Women's T20 World Cup and have showed flashes of quality in their three defeats.

But zero points with one game remaining means that Scotland are already guaranteed to end their campaign at the group stage, even if they were to pull off a huge upset and beat England in their fourth and final match.

Remaining fixtures in Group B

Bangladesh v South Africa – Saturday 12 October (8:00pm Bangladesh time), Dubai International Cricket Stadium

England v Scotland – Sunday 13 October (4:00pm Bangladesh time), Sharjah Cricket Stadium

England v West Indies – Tuesday 15 October (8:00pm Bangladesh time), Dubai International Cricket Stadium