Desert fest: Dream clash casts a shadow on quarters

Photos: Reuters

A dream match-up for an entire generation is on the cards, with Brazil and Argentina finally on a collision course for the semifinal.

While fans from a previous generation may remember the 1990 World Cup Round of 16 clash between the two arch-rivals, which Argentina won 1-0, later fans may only remember a handful of Copa America encounters between the two sides, denied of a potentially generation-defining World Cup clash.

That anticipated semifinal may have already sent tongues wagging, but the path to the final four is far from simple for either side, with Brazil taking on 2018 finalists Croatia and Argentina meeting the Netherlands.

But the South American giants can take the ultimate confidence heading into the match, not due to their overwhelming firepower, but because they have lived up to the most important mantra in sport: 'Defence wins championships'.

So far in Qatar, Argentina have allowed just 41 touches in their penalty area, one less than Brazil. La Albiceleste have also conceded 16 shots, of which only four have found the target. They have also blocked eight shots. Meanwhile, Brazil have faced 26 shots with nine on target and 15 blocked. They have also conceded just twice.

There was also a lot to be made of their attacking output, but Argentina continue to rely on Lionel Messi and his magical left foot.

In fact, other than Julian Alvarez, no other Argentina has had more than five shots. Messi has had 17. The 36-year-old has also attempted 18 dribbles. Only Angel di Maria has more, with 19, but no other Argentine has more than five.

Messi's statistics are eerily reminiscent to Kylian Mbappe's, who is leading France's defence of their World Cup as something of a one-man team.

On the other hand, Brazil have found attacking threats from every angle.

Six of their players have had at least 10 touches in the opposing penalty box and, while Brazil have attempted more dribbles than any other team (82), no one player has had to bear the burden, although Vinicius Jr and Raphinha have had slightly more. Brazil's shots have also been varied, with seven players taking at least five shots.

Still, Brazil were hounded for their profligacy in front of goal in the group stages after scoring just thrice from 57 shots. Tite was unconvinced by that criticism, opining ahead of the knockout match against South Korea that his team had performed admirably in terms of creating chances. He believed the goals would come, referring to his team's Xg (Expected Goals) -- a complex measure that calculates the probability of shot resulting in a goal depending on various factors such as distance from goal, defenders in blocking positions and the goalkeeper's positioning.

Through the group stages, Brazil netted just thrice despite being 'expected' to score closer to six.

But indeed, as Tite forewarned, Brazil found their clinical touch against South Korea, netting four times from only 10 shots.

They will hope to keep that clinical streak intact against Croatia, who present a much tougher prospect than the Asians. The Croats are happy to settle down in defence, dominate the midfield and starve opponents of possession. Croatia also have nerves of steel when it comes to penalty shootouts, having won three straight World Cup shootouts.

Argentina's opponents for the quarterfinals, the Netherlands, have been insipid, managing just 14 shots on target for their 8 goals. However, coach Louis van Gaal has shown his impeccable game-management skills in each match. He will hope to negate Argentina's threats as he did with the USA's in the Round of 16 and hope quick counters can finally work despite the lack of lethal players up front from the Arjen Robben or Robin van Persie mould.

At the other end of the spectrum are England, who take on France in their quarterfinal. But while the pre-match discussion has been dominated by Mbappe, there is another interest aspect.

England have overperformed on nearly every metric. The Three Lions have scored 12 goals in their four games from just 21 shots on target, an inconceivable conversion rate above 50 per cent, and 52 shots overall. In that time, based on the quality of chances, they were 'expected' to score just 6.

While the small sample size of tournaments means such outliers may hold true, Spain's exit shows that things can very quickly swing the other way. They saw all seven of their shots on target bulge the net against Costa Rica, but quickly ran out of luck afterwards.

If the football gods decided to balance out England's fortunes, they will almost certainly run out of luck at some points, even if not against France.

Portugal have also burst into life after benching Cristiano Ronaldo, but without the challenge posed by his aerial abilty, Morocco can be even more confident in holding down the fort as they have done better than any other team in Qatar.

The focus from today for the wider footballing world may be the imminent quarterfinals, but eyes have already turned to the semifinals, which may become the most fascinating for a generation of fans if everything falls into place.