South America’s World Cup?

Two decades have gone by since South America last won the World Cup. Brazil's 2002 triumph coincided with the first time the tournament was staged in Asia. Now, as the World Cup returns to the continent, might that long dry run come to an end?  Brazil and Argentina, South America's big two, are looking very good in the run up to Qatar. In fact, it is hard to think of a time when the pair of them have looked better.

This is especially remarkable in the case of Argentina. They were a shambles in Russia 2018, and with the oldest squad in the tournament, they needed a massive rebuilding job. Coach Jorge Sampaoli had been on a long term contract, which put the Argentine FA in a tight spot when they decided to sack him. In came former right-back Lionel Scaloni. He had next to no coaching experience, but he had one significant virtue -- he was cheap. And this unlikely choice has been a roaring success, building probably the best Argentina team that Lionel Messi has ever played in. Argentina have gone 35 games unbeaten. Even more importantly, last year they ended a 28-year-wait for a senior title by winning the Copa America in Brazil, beating the hosts in the final, improving the atmosphere greatly as they build towards the big one.

Messi, then, has one last crack at winning the World Cup -- and he has been a key part of the process.  For many years there was a feeling that he was not fully integrated into the Argentina team, and that his quiet, self-contained manner could intimidate some of his teammates. From the 2019 Copa America, he was a different figure, much more vocal and encouraging. It was clear that the national team was now his number one priority. He has scored an extraordinary nine goals in less than two-and-a-half games.  True, it is not something he will repeat in Qatar -- opponents will put up stiffer opposition than Estonia, Honduras and Jamaica. But it does show how Argentina are getting the best out of him. Where before the only plan seemed to be to give him the ball and hope, now he is receiving possession closer to the opposition goal, in zones of the pitch where he can do serious damage. This is because Argentina's midfield unit is working so attractively and so well. Leandro Paredes gives the first ball out with quality; Rodrigo De Paul adds thrust and Giovani Lo Celso slips through subtle little passes. Messi has forged an interesting relationship with centre-forward Lautaro Martinez, and there is Angel Di Maria to flit around on the flanks to good effect. The team works -- and it has functioned even better since the middle of last year, when Emiliano Martinez and Cristian Romero were simultaneously brought into the side. Right from the start, Martinez looked like the best goalkeeper that Argentina have had in decades, and Romero instantly became the first choice centre-back. Defence has long been a weakness for Argentina -- it was a huge problem in Russia 2018.  Now they have conceded two goals in the last 14 games.

But maybe, when the real stuff starts, Brazil's defensive unit will perform even better. Argentina have occasionally needed some heroics from Martinez. Brazil's goalkeeper over the past year-and-a-half could often take the field with a deckchair and catch up on his reading. Brazil were not far off the pace four years ago -- they surely deserved to take that wonderful quarterfinal against Belgium into extra time.  But they look even better now -- in no small part the consequence of keeping the same coach for the entire cycle. Tite had less than two years in the run up to Russia 2018. Having the entire four years in the build-up to Qatar has enabled him to consolidate an idea of a team, and work on some variations. The 2022 model side press the opposition in their own half with a ferocity that no Brazil team has ever tried before, making them hard to pay against -- and very good to watch when they get on the ball. They can count on more top-class keepers and centre-backs than they can use, and since last year's Copa America defeat to Argentina, they have been able to take advantage of a terrifying new crop of attacking talent.  On the right wing Raphinha has stepped into the national side as if he had been there all his life. Vinicius Junior has exploded as an international star. Richarlison has booked his place with seven goals in the last six games. And then there are the likes of Antony, Rodrygo, plus Gabriel Jesus and maybe Gabriel Martinelli. All of this is wonderful news both for the team and for Neymar.  The pressure on the PSG star will be immense. In the eyes of his countrymen his legacy will stand or fall by what happens in Qatar, and so it is a massive benefit to him that he can share the burden with such talented colleagues. And just as Messi has the Argentine midfield as a supply line, Neymar has a fruitful relationship with attacking midfielder Lucas Paqueta. Almost Brazil's only problem is that things have been going too well.  Over the run of the last 15 games (12 wins and 3 draws, 38 scored, 5 conceded) the team has nearly never been under any pressure -- and World Cups are not won by running up big scorelines, but by finding a way through the tough games,

Part of the fascination of this World Cup is that because of the pandemic, and chiefly the Nations League, there has been very little national team football between Europe and South America since Russia 2018. Brazil have been desperate to warm up against European oppositions, but have been thwarted every time, with the exception of a visit to the Czech Republic in 2019. This is significant because since that 2002 win, every Brazil World Cup campaign has ended when they came up against a European side in the knock out stages. Argentina have had a couple of successes -- an edgy win over Switzerland and a victory on penalties over Holland, both in Brazil eight years ago. But all of their World Cup adventures over the last 20 years have also been ended by Europeans.

Argentina did strike a psychological blow in June with a convincing win at Wembley over European champions Italy. But the Italians, of course, will not be in Qatar. The likes of Spain, Germany and defending champions France will be, along with Holland, Belgium, England and other potentially dangerous adversaries. There is a wonderfully retro quality to this World Cup. In recent tournaments everyone has known everything about everyone. This time there is a charming air of ignorance about one of the key issues of any World Cup -- the relative merits of the best teams from South America and Europe. We will all have fun finding out, and for the time being South America has every right to dream of emerging from Qatar with a 100% record in Asian World Cups.

*Tim Vickery is a renowned football writer, based in South America, and working for the BBC and contributing to other leading football networks. He wrote this piece for The Daily Star's Qatar World Cup magazine 'Desert Fest'.