Hello chaos my old friend

We've been here before. A World Cup looming, fans desperately trying to gauge how Bangladesh will perform in the showpiece event. 

You reach a consensus, perhaps to the tune of "they will get blown away this year" or, at the other end of the spectrum, "they're playing well, they might just conjure something".

And then the Tigers do the opposite.

Consider the track record. Leading up to the country's first World Cup appearance in England in 1999, the Tigers played the Asia Cup and a few international triangulars. Against the big boys, a score of 180 not all out was creditable, and Bangladesh struggled to beat Kenya. The stage was set for a hammering in the World Cup played in the unfamiliar conditions of England and Wales, right?

Wrong. Bangladesh beat Scotland, a fellow minnow, and Pakistan, the eventual runners-up and till that shock result against Bangladesh, the form team of the tournament.

Come South Africa 2003, Bangladesh were drawn in a group with Canada and Kenya. Having been elevated to Test status three years earlier, Bangladesh were part of cricket's big-boy table and those other teams were not. So, at least one confirmed win, given what they did in the last World Cup? Wrong again -- losses to everyone bar West Indies, as that match was rained out. Their worst performance in the tournament history.

In the next global showpiece in the West Indies, they were drawn with India, Sri Lanka and Bermuda in a group from which two would progress. No chance? Think again. In a tournament-altering result, the Tigers knocked India out and then beat South Africa in the Super Eights, before doing the decent thing and not making it to the semifinals.

This pattern goes on. At home in 2011, with a buildup that consisted of beating New Zealand 4-0 and a rising trend in performance in home matches, you could have been forgiven for being in the "might just conjure something" camp. Fifty-eight all out against the West Indies, 78 all out against South Africa, and as one of the host nations, Bangladesh could not finish even in the top eight. Not even close. 

Fast forward to 2015 in Australia. The previous year was among the worst in Bangladesh's history, with the Tigers losing anything that could be lost, and then coming up with ways to lose matches that seemed impossible not to win (having Sri Lanka 67 for eight, then losing by 13 runs in Mirpur, for a dire example). But then they went on to play the quarterfinals in Australia, with Rubel Hossain's memorable demolition of England and Mahmudullah Riyad's consecutive tons against England and New Zealand the standout memories. 

Let's waste the least amount of space recounting the latest, as it is freshest. One of the fastest improving teams under Mashrafe Bin Mortaza, the Tigers won their maiden multi-team trophy on the eve of the 2019 World Cup, but then finished eighth out of 10 teams when it mattered. This time, even neutrals were giving them a fair chance of making a deep run. 

With the above summary of World Cups past, you may find a pattern, that they seem to shine in alternate World Cups, or that they can reliably be expected to do the opposite of what is expected. But the wider picture, the wider pattern, is of chaos and inconsistency. 
Things have been glossed over in the aforementioned retrospective. In 2007, they KO'd India and South Africa, but in the other outings were comprehensively outplayed, even by their 2007 standards. 

In 2011, apart from the abject displays against the West Indies and South Africa, there was hope for a while with victories over the Netherlands, Ireland and a particularly rousing and exciting one over England.

Memories of 2015 glories must be tempered by the fact that a quarterfinal finish, in all likelihood, was made possible by a fortunate washout against hosts and eventual champions Australia. 

And lastly, in 2019 before the gloomy end in Lord's came the brightest of beginnings at The Oval, when Bangladesh beat South Africa, then almost defeated eventual finalists New Zealand, and then pulled off a successful 300-plus chase over the West Indies in Taunton. 
So, what is the expectation for India 2023?

Why are we even asking? What could possibly be the answer? We could say that Bangladesh were as high as third in the 2023 World Cup race, but then we'd have to say they are seventh in the current ODI rankings. We could say that under Tamim Iqbal a relatively stable team had been improving since the last World Cup, but after that thing that happened when he retired, unretired and then quit captaincy, stability is not the word. 

We could say that they won series against South Africa away from home and India at home, but then they lost to Afghanistan at home, and were unable to bat even 40 overs on an absolute belter of a pitch against Pakistan in the recently concluded Asia Cup. 
The simplest thing, and closest to the truth, to say is that we do not know. The BCB does not know, the players do not know, neither do sports writers or fans. 

We do not know what surprises the World Cup squad will hold. It will probably be announced a minute before players are asked to leave for the airport. Will it affect them? Not likely. By now they have probably figured out the only reliable pattern, that there will be chaos. 
We should too, and embrace it. At least, going by past tournaments, it won't be boring. Or will it?