Qualification race heats up as India face Australia

Afghanistan exercised the demons of their defeat against Australia in the previous ODI World Cup with their victory over the Aussies in yesterday's Super Eight fixture and in the process have thrown open the Group 1 with all four teams in with a chance to make it to the semifinals with one match in hand. 

The first of the remaining two Group 1 fixtures – India-Australia – will take place today in St. Lucia, where India have a chance to exact revenge for the scarring defeat in the final of last year's ODI World Cup final in home turf by putting Australia at the precipice of getting knocked out.

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If India win, they would move onto the semis with six points and Australia would remain on two points and their qualification hopes will be depend on the outcome of the Bangladesh-Afghanistan match the next day.

If the Afghans defeat the Tigers, they would move onto the semis for the first time as group runners-up with four points, sending Australia and Bangladesh packing.

However, if the Afghans lose, Australia, Bangladesh and Afghanistan will finish the Super Eight stage with two points and the qualification race will be decided on the basis of net run rate, which would put Mitchell Marsh's team in poll position to qualify.

Even if Afghanistan lose by just one run, Australia will need to lose by 31 for their run rate to slip below that of Afghanistan. Bangladesh will need to win by 31 runs for their net run rate to sneak ahead of Afghanistan's, but they will also need Australia to lose by 55 runs, to finish second in the group.

However, if Australia come out on top against India, it would end Bangladesh's hopes of playing the semis and the other three teams will finish on four points. 

If Australia win by a run, Afghanistan will need a 36-run win over the Tigers to overtake Australia on net run rate. If Australia win a run-chase off the last ball, Afghanistan will have to win their game in 15.4 overs or sooner, assuming first-innings scores of 160.

For India to get knocked out, Australia will need to beat India by 41 runs to go past them on run rate, while Afghanistan will have to beat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs. 

Despite the precarious position of his team, Marsh remained confident to win against India and making it to the semifinals.

"We have a lot of belief in our group. Yes, tonight [yesterday] we had an off night, but I guess there's also a positive in the fact that in 36 hours we go again," Marsh said after the 21-run defeat against Afghanistan.  "I think if you look back at the short history of this team, I know for a fact that it brings out the best in our guys, so the boys will certainly be up and about for it. It's all about trusting ourselves."