Can Ukraine war spell a nuclear disaster?

In a callback to its trigger-happy Soviet days, Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, blocking all avenues of dialogue and negotiation. In the eight days since, things have only escalated. Russia has already occupied the Ukrainian cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. They have attacked and/or captured sensitive installations, including military bases, airports, land ports, and the Chernobyl nuclear power station.

As per an estimate, more than 9,000 people have died so far, at least a million have become displaced, and massive destruction has swept over the Ukrainian soil. Russia's main goal now is to seize control of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, as soon as possible.

This is Russia's deadliest and most sensitive military strike in two decades. The attack sparked a war of attrition between NATO member states and the former communist bloc. It is difficult to say where this war will end up. While the NATO superpowers—that is, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany—are currently refraining from military action, Russia is facing strict economic sanctions.

Concerns over the severity of the attack on Ukraine are spreading all over the world. Per barrel oil prices have jumped from USD 70 to USD 110. Food prices are already rising. As a result of the Covid-19 crisis, the world economy was already in a state of turmoil. Although there are many concerns in my mind, the biggest one is the safety and security of Ukraine's nuclear power plants.

Fifty-one percent of Ukraine's electricity comes from 15 running nuclear power plants. These are Russian Generation II plants that were built in the 1970s and lack fortification and safety features of the current Generation III+ plus reactors. Their safety system cannot last more than half an hour without electricity. Moreover, all these nuclear reactors are incapable of withstanding missile or bomber strikes. Cyber-attacks can also destroy the power system and data system of a power plant. This could lead to a catastrophic situation like Chernobyl if the power transmission line breaks down, or the power dependent emergency cooling system is not turned on in time.

The three major nuclear accidents that have occurred so far globally (Three Mile, Chernobyl and Fukushima) have all had contributions from the inefficiency or negligence of certain plant workers. Now, if the workers are mentally strained or worried about the security of their families and the country, then there is a good chance that a nuclear accident may happen. In the case of the nuclear industry, it is known to all that ensuring safety and security is largely dependent on human performances and reliability. The rest depends on equipment quality and reliability of the systems.

Another highly sensitive issue is nuclear security risks. Enriched material security at nuclear facilities is extremely fragile during times of war or political instability. As a result, domestic or regional terrorists may utilise this opportunity to hijack radioactive material in an attempt to make a dirty bomb, or even a nuclear weapon. Imagine the damage that could cause! None of us would be safe.

On the first day, Russia launched a military offensive in Ukraine, taking control of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on the Belarusian border, and taking its staff hostage. The Chernobyl site, though inactive, is still undergoing waste management at its four reactors, and Ukraine has set up a central waste management facility there to handle highly radioactive waste generated from the country's 15 nuclear power plants. According to international law, a nuclear power plant can never be the target of a military strike. If a nuclear power plant is hit mistakenly by a wayward missile or a bomber, the damage could be greater than all other devastations of the war combined. This will spread radioactivity in the neighbouring countries. Russia may not want to launch direct attacks on Ukraine's nuclear power plants and may instead take control of them. But this will result in Ukraine's defence system no longer working. Then, Ukraine will have nowhere to go.

Experts and policymakers from the international community, including those from the International Atomic Energy Agency, are concerned about the safety and security of Ukraine's nuclear power plants. In this scenario, both countries should be very alert and prudent. The irreparable damage from the Chernobyl or Fukushima nuclear accidents is still being borne by Ukraine and Japan, respectively. We don't want to witness war anymore. It is our expectation that responsible policymakers will act sincerely to protect future generations.

Dr Md. Shafiqul Islam is a professor, researcher, and writer at the Department of Nuclear Engineering, Dhaka University. Email: msislam@du.ac.bd