China’s strategic interests in post-US Afghanistan

After the complete withdrawal of the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces from Afghanistan last month, the Taliban took over the country for the second time. Although the Taliban-led government has yet to be recognised by any country, China is one of the few that has expressed interest in developing friendly relations with the Taliban.

China has reiterated its stand for non-interference in Afghanistan's internal affairs and firm support for the country's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. While the US and its NATO allies have evacuated their embassy staff from Afghanistan, the Chinese embassy is still functioning normally in the country. China's State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted a Taliban delegation led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, head of the Afghan Taliban Political Commission, on July 28, in the northeastern Chinese port city of Tianjin. China has given a clear indication that it wants to make contact and establish effective communication with the Taliban.

As per the policy, during an informal meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikistan on September 16, China along with Russia, Pakistan and Iran agreed to strengthen communication and coordination, exert positive influence and play constructive role in order to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan. China has also announced USD 31 million worth of emergency aid to Afghanistan, which includes food supplies, medicines, and coronavirus vaccines. These developments imply that China has increased engagement with Afghanistan moderately under the Taliban rule.

It is important to note that China never established an official relationship with the Taliban when the group was previously in power in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. Then what is the reason behind China's remarkable policy shift towards the Taliban in post-US Afghanistan?

Protecting its national interests is one of the key reasons why China is willing to build good relations with the Taliban. The Chinese government perceives the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM)—referring to the alleged Uyghur extremist group—as a direct threat to the country's national security and territorial integrity. According to Chinese news agency Xinhua, there are currently 200-300 ETIM members in Afghanistan. The fact of the matter is that the Wakhan Corridor, a narrow strip of territory in Afghanistan, borders China's Xinjiang province. Given that China is concerned about the possible connection between the Taliban and the ETIM, and a potential rise of terror attacks within its borders, the country seeks clear assurance from the newly empowered Taliban to break ties with all kinds of international terrorist forces. According to a press statement on the China-Taliban meeting issued by the Chinese foreign ministry, Foreign Minister Wang Yi remarked: "We hope the Afghan Taliban will make a clean break with all terrorist organisations, including the ETIM, and resolutely and effectively combat them to remove obstacles, play a positive role, and create enabling conditions for security, stability, development and cooperation in the region."

China has gained assurance from the Taliban that it will not allow any forces to use Afghanistan's land to endanger other countries—including China. The country has urged the new Taliban government to take effective measures to crack down on terrorism within its territory. Neil Thomas, analyst on China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, said: "Chinese authorities may also be trying to protect their country from terror attacks by building a relationship with the Taliban." Thus, the Taliban attaches a great deal of significance to China to ensure an ETIM-free Afghanistan.

China is also willing to develop good relations with the newly formed Taliban government to pursue its economic interests through economic diplomacy. As Afghanistan has been facing daunting challenges and uncertainties, China is considered to have emerged as the best partner in Afghanistan's reconstruction process, according to the Global Times, a mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party. Chinese companies seek investment opportunities in Afghanistan's severely damaged infrastructures. It attempts not only to expand Chinese business through establishing a long-term industrial platform in Afghanistan, but also to facilitate the development of economic corridors across the region, under the framework of China's most ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project. Whereas building cross-border infrastructure connectivity remains the prime agenda of BRI, such investment opportunities can accelerate China's infrastructure projects in war-torn Afghanistan. It also opens the door for the potential expansion of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship and fastest growing project of the BRI, into Afghanistan. The Taliban has already expressed its desire to join the CPEC to protect overseas investment.

Enhancing economic engagement with Afghanistan in sectors such as utilities and mining has been of significant interest for China for years. For instance, the China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC Group), a state-owned Chinese company, won the right to develop a large copper deposit and extract high-quality copper from the Aynak copper field near Kabul in November 2007. The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed a 25-year deal with Afghanistan in December 2011, to explore three fields in the basin containing about 87 million barrels of oil. These projects have been stalled due to the instability and security concerns in Afghanistan. Amid the dramatic power shift with the Taliban takeover, Chinese firms are eying a resumption of these projects. China also seeks to start new projects to extract rare earth metals and minerals in Afghanistan. In this regard, China plans to boost cooperation in the energy sector with the mineral-rich country.

It is apparent that China's gradual engagement with the Taliban has both geostrategic and geo-economic implications. Being one of the neighbouring countries of China, it is crucial to restore long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan in order to ensure China's territorial integrity and national security. Hence there is a huge possibility of expanding China's BRI project to Afghanistan, which would, of course, depend on China's successful diplomacy with the Taliban.

Sultana Yesmin has completed her PhD from the Central China Normal University in Wuhan, China. She is a former visiting research fellow at the Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences (YASS).