Illustration: Collected

Large social and economic crises are usually followed by increases in human trafficking and exploitation. There is no reason to believe that the Covid-19 pandemic will be any different in Bangladesh. There are already clear signs of growing vulnerability in communities. Taking informed action now could disrupt trafficking patterns before borders and movement return to normal later in 2021.

Before the onset of the pandemic in 2020, Bangladesh and West Bengal were already growing hubs for human trafficking. West Bengal accounted for some 55 percent of reported cases of trafficking in India in 2016, and over 50,000 Bangladeshi children and women are trafficked to India every year, largely into West Bengal, primarily for sexual exploitation. In addition, the Bangladesh-India border is 4,000-km long and often unfenced. This situation is likely to be worsened by the pandemic.

The Ebola epidemic of 2013-2016 in West Africa saw a correlation between families broken up by the impacts of the virus and an uptick in the exploitation of women and girls. In Bangladesh, the impact of Covid-19 has led to a significant rise in vulnerability in poor communities through 2020. In 2018-19, the poverty rate was 20.5 percent; this increased to 29.5 percent by June 2020. Those who were already vulnerable before the pandemic are now being joined by the "newly vulnerable", people whose livelihoods and income have been damaged by the pandemic. An increase in vulnerability will lead to an increase in risk taking. As a recent BRAC research paper reminds us, "if the need and poverty are great enough, and not addressed, people will ... migrate no matter the risks, known or unknown." For the poorest, severe economic shocks lead to scarcity of jobs, food, and money, and push people into irregular migration and related forms of exploitation.

BRAC is undertaking a pilot project in Jashore (on the western Bangladesh border with India) to test interventions focused on reducing the trafficking of children especially girls and women aged 12-30 in vulnerable communities. There have been a number of key findings about the damaging impacts of Covid-19 on communities.

During the lockdown, there were significant job losses, particularly for those in the informal sector (day labourers, rickshaw pullers, small business owners). As the economy reopens, there has been growing competition for available work; many migrant workers who were previously working overseas have now returned to Bangladesh—The Daily Star reported that over 500,000 migrants had returned by March 2021. There has also been a trend of internal migration from urban to rural areas as people return to their villages after losing their jobs. BRAC said they have observed a significant rise in gender-based violence, particularly during the lockdown. It also draws links between lockdown, frustration, anxiety, and a wider increase in violence in the country. At the local level, a number of important services have been disrupted.

The closure of courts from March to September in 2020 has increased the backlog of cases (a backlog that already stood at 3.5 million pending cases). There is also less oversight at the local level, and important local bodies such as Counter-Trafficking Committees (CTCs) are not necessarily carrying out their duties due to the lockdown.

These issues are all likely to increase the chances of people being trafficked; adults without income or support or experiencing violence are more likely to pursue dangerous or unreliable job offers themselves or to send their children into risky and unsafe work. Equally, children with fewer supports are more vulnerable to traffickers, especially when many schools have been closed, particularly girls aged 14-16 who are ordinarily vulnerable to school dropout and trafficking.

Evidence points to ongoing trafficking activities, possibly preparatory work to identify victims for a later date when cross-border movement becomes easier. Middlemen have reportedly been very active lately in communities. Since the border is closed between Bangladesh and India to all but international trade, it is very hard to secure visas for crossings into West Bengal (a common way to "legally" transport trafficking victims into India). Much trafficking activity will likely have been driven out to the unfenced border or online. Recent reports point to a growth in the use of social media platforms like TikTok in the recruitment and grooming of victims.

Most experts think that we are in a moment of uncertainty. There is limited data, and the impacts of the pandemic on trafficking patterns are yet to be observed. But they all agree that a surge in vulnerability will lead to a large growth in trafficking in the coming months.

There are also new and emerging patterns of trafficking. An official from Stop the Traffik, a campaign coalition fighting to prevent human trafficking worldwide, sees a growth of trafficking of Bangladeshis and the Rohingya into Malaysia, and BRAC warns of growing internal trafficking in Bangladesh. BRAC's findings in Jashore are representative of wider growth, evolution and change in trafficking and exploitation of vulnerable and minority groups across South Asia. While responsible organisations will continue to remain vigilant and respond to the changing context, communities, law enforcement and the government in Bangladesh and India, as well as the international community, will all need to cooperate if they are to disrupt new trafficking patterns and minimise the adverse effects of Covid-19 on cross-border trafficking in South Asia.

Patrick Mostyn is the Programmes Partnerships Manager for Asia, BRAC UK.