Imran Khan’s march to chaos

Pakistan seems to be heading towards political confrontation following the government's decision to ban the PTI march in Islamabad. Crackdowns on the opposition leaders and the sealing of the capital have created a highly volatile situation. The government already seems to be panicking.

Imran Khan had earlier this week called upon his supporters to storm the Pakistan capital. He is demanding the immediate dissolution of the Nat­io­nal Assembly and the announcement of an election date. He plans to gather more than a million people to bring down what he describes as an "imported go­­vernment" installed through a "foreign conspiracy."

Whether or not Khan succeeds in his objective, the situation is becoming increasingly untenable for the present dispensation. The government's actions could set fire to a combustible situation. That's exactly what the former prime minister wants. He has already announced he will defy the government's ban. The impending confrontation could cause the entire political edifice to collapse, raising the possibility of extraconstitutional intervention.

Curiously, Imran Khan has warned the security establishment to stay neutral in the political fray, marking a complete turnaround from his criticism of the military leadership's decision not to rescue his government. He has, however, urged the families of military personnel and former servicemen to join the march.

It is evident that he actually wants the security establishment to be on his side, rather than stay neutral in the political power struggle. The campaign against the military leadership by PTI supporters seems to be a part of the effort to bring the institution under pressure. It's an extremely dangerous game that could have serious implications for the unity of the institution.

Pakistani politics has been on a roller coaster forever. But what's happening now on the country's political stage is bizarre. Just a few months ago, before his ouster from office, Imran Khan's popularity graph seemed to have plummeted to a new low. Bad governance, the rising cost of living, and erratic decision-making had eroded his support base. The creeping demoralisation in party ranks had triggered defections. The hybrid project had fallen apart and an epitaph was being prepared.

But within days of the vote of no-confidence move, the situation changed dramatically. The party rose like a phoenix from the ashes. Khan's narrative of a "foreign conspiracy," however false, hit a chord with large sections of the population that held deep-rooted anti-American sentiments. His demagoguery weaponised nationalist emotions.

It is, however, not the only factor contributing to the exponential rise in Imran Khan's political fortunes, as is evident by his massive public rallies. His narrative of "imported rule" that, according to him, has marked the return to power of a "tainted and tried" leadership, has proven to be extremely effective in rallying support, particularly among the urban middle classes and the youth.

It has been more than six weeks since the installation of the new government, but nothing has been done to stop the financial haemorrhaging caused by subsidies. While talks with the IMF are on, the finance minister has reiterated that the government would not remove the subsidies on petroleum prices. The latest development has increased political uncertainty and is bound to have an adverse effect on negotiations with the IMF and diminish the possibility of getting a bailout from friendly countries.

It seems that the coalition government has decided to preside over a possible economic meltdown rather than going to the hustings. Its decision not to dissolve the Assembly also seems to have been driven by Imran Khan's policy of confrontation. Fearful of taking any unpopular action on its own, the Sharif government is now looking towards the security establishment to help it salvage the situation.

There has been some talk about involving the National Security Committee in taking hard decisions on the issue of subsidies. The suggestion to seek the military's support has further exposed the government's incapacity in dealing with the crisis. A redundant parliament has worsened the government's predicament, raising questions about its sustainability.

It appears Pakistan may be moving towards a new hybrid arrangement with a weak administration seeking the military's support in propping it up. The latest development could put the military leadership, which is already under attack by the PTI supporters, in a serious quandary. Imran Khan's warning seems to be directed at the security establishment. While once he himself had been propped up by the establishment, the former prime minister is now on the warpath against his former patrons. This situation has raised the possibility of the military getting mired more deeply in the political power game. It is perhaps the most serious crisis the country has faced in recent times.

This is the abridged version of an article published in Dawn, an ANN partner of The Daily Star, on May 25, 2022.

Zahid Hussain is a Pakistani journalist and author.