Experts warn daily cases can double in late May

The daily Covid cases may double after the third week of next month if the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions are relaxed or withdrawn, a team of researchers has forecasted, based on epidemiological projection modelling.

The projection suggests that the present coronavirus transmission rate may follow the current trend till the second week of next month. The rate is likely to start going up in the following week due to increased public movement surrounding Eid and hit the ceiling in the third week of June.

The number of Covid-19 casualties may rise accordingly, said the researchers, based on the modelling.

In 24 hours till yesterday morning, 3,306 people tested positive for Covid-19 while 97 coronavirus patients died, according to a press release from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS).

"The Covid-19 transmission rate has steadily been going down over the last few days. It will continue until the second week of May thanks to the movement restrictions in effect. As there will be increased public movement ahead of Eid, the transmission rate  may go up again," Shafiun Shimul, one of the members of the Covid-19 International Modelling Consortium (CoMo Consortium) team, told The Daily Star yesterday.

CoMo Consortium, created by researchers at the University of Oxford and Cornell University, is partnering with infectious disease modellers and public health experts from over 40 countries.

The researchers in this team use a participatory approach to provide decision-making support to policymakers, using evidence from epidemiological and economic models adapted to each country's context.

According to the analysis of the CoMo Consortium, around 25,000 people died of Covid-19 or Covid-19-related issues since the viral infection was reported in the country on March 8 last year.

By the end of this year, the total number of such deaths will reach around 50,000, the team said.

"As there was no reliable data on deaths in many cases, we have used data from different research papers and experiences from other countries. We have also taken into consideration those who died without getting treatment  for other diseases due to the pandemic," said Shimul, who is also an associate professor at the Institute of Health Economics in Dhaka University.

The country has been witnessing the second wave of Covid-19 infection since the second week of last month, after the transmission rate remained under control during January and February.

Since April 16, the coronavirus positivity rate, however, has been sliding. The rate was reported to be at 12.82 percent yesterday -- the lowest during this period.

With the latest figure, the Covid-19 death toll in the country reached 11,150 and the death rate stood at 1.49 percent, according to the DGHS.

The total number of cases hit 7,48,628, said the DGHS in a press release yesterday, adding that 25,786 samples were tested across the country in 24 hours till 8:00am yesterday.

At least 4,241 Covid-19 patients have recovered during the period.

The total number of recoveries now stands at 6,61,693 and the recovery rate at 88.39 percent.

Among the 97 deceased, 61 were men and 36 were women. Of them, one was between 11-20; two were between 21-30; four between 31-40; 10 between 41-50; 21 between 51-60; and 69 were above 60, added the release.