Rice production in Bangladesh may fall in the current marketing year of 2024-25, which began last May, for a reduction in the acreage of Aman season paddy due to repeated floods.

In a report on the third week of December, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said two consecutive floods in August and October damaged around 3 lakh hectares of cropland.

Transplanted in the July-September period and harvested in the December-January period, the Aman season paddy ended up being cultivated on 56 lakh hectares of land.

Consequently, overall yield of the monsoon-fed Aman rice crop would drop 4.1 percent year-on-year to 1.4 crore tonnes, said the US agency in its latest grain and feed update on Bangladesh.

Around 1.46 crore tonnes were harvested in the same season of the previous year.

And as a result of the fall in the yield of Aman, total rice production may decline to 3.66 crore tonnes in the marketing year 2024-25 ending in April this year.

Aman season paddy accounts for the second-biggest amount of rice harvested in a year, or roughly 40 percent of the country's annual rice production.

The USDA report said a devastating flood struck the southeastern part of the country, damaging around 2 lakh hectares of Aman rice fields in the third week of August.

From August 18-21, several districts in Chattogram, Barishal, and Sylhet divisions experienced heavy rainfall, leading to widespread flooding in Feni, Noakhali, Cumilla, Lakshmipur, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, and Brahmanbaria districts, as well as landslides in Cox's Bazar district.

Another flash flood occurred in the first week of October in Sherpur and Mymensingh districts, inundating around 1 lakh hectares of Aman rice fields, it added.

However, the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) says the recurrent floods affected 1.62 lakh hectares of Aman acreage.

As such, farmers could harvest Aman from 56.71 lakh hectares of land, said DAE Director (in-charge) of Field Services Sarker Shafi Uddin Ahmed.

Until yesterday, farmers harvested roughly 95 percent of the crop.

"Even after the area reduction, we have found that the average yield of Aman rice has increased this year," he said.

Overall production rose to 3.1 tonnes per hectare this year from 2.9 tonnes a hectare a year ago, he said.

The USDA said the zAman rice harvest has been completed in the northern, northwestern, and central parts of the country, while the southern regions are expected to complete their harvest by the end of December.

"Farmers in the northern districts of Bangladesh reported a good harvest of Aman season rice despite the higher cost of production," it said.

As the US agency lowers its forecast regarding overall rice output for the MY25, Bangladesh's rice imports may rise as per government plans and for a reduction in import tariff.

Farmers Make Little To No Profit

The US agency said the average price of coarse rice in November hit a 12-year high at Tk 53.3 per kilogramme.

The price was 5.2 percent higher in November from that a year ago, it said, citing retail prices data recorded by the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh.

The USDA said various factors, including a higher cost of rice production, processing, transportation, and an inefficient supply chain, are contributing to the rising price of rice.

"Like many other agricultural commodities in Bangladesh, the rice supply chain involves multiple market actors, which ultimately leads to higher costs for consumers," it said.

Yet due to the increased costs of fertiliser, labour, and irrigation, farmers are earning little to no profit from rice cultivation, with profits only coming from selling rice straw, it said.

"Rice straw is widely used as feed for dairy cows by smallholder farmers," it added.