EU could face gas shortage next year, IEA warns

The European Union has enough gas for the winter but could face a shortage next year if Russia cuts supplies further, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday, urging governments to act faster to save energy and expand renewables.

Despite Russia slashing gas deliveries this year, Europe has averted a severe shortage and started the winter with brimming gas storage tanks - thanks in part to emergency EU measures to fill storage, plus a lucky spell of mild weather and high gas prices that dampened demand for the fuel.

But next year may pose an even tougher test than the energy crunch that has this year seen fuel bills soar for European households and forced industries to temporarily close to avoid crippling gas bills.

If Russia was to cut the small share of gas it still delivers to Europe, and Chinese gas demand rebounded from COVID-19 lockdown-induced lows, the EU could face a gas shortfall of 27 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2023, the IEA said. Total EU gas consumption was 412 bcm in 2021, according to EU data.

"This is a serious challenge," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told a press conference with the European Commission in Brussels, adding the shortfall would have been around 60 bcm without the EU's emergency response measures.

The potential shortage could be averted by expanding subsidies and policies to save energy by renovating draughty homes and replacing fossil fuel-based heating with heat pumps, while pressing ahead with the EU's plans to massively expand renewable energy, the IEA said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc's gas supply was  "safe for this winter" and the 27-country EU was preparing for the next one.

The energy watchdog also called for better campaigns to encourage consumers to use less energy.