Middle East conflict has limited impact on Bangladesh so far: report

The repercussions of the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict would be limited on Bangladesh's capital market, as information about the conflict has already been absorbed by the market, said BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage.

The local brokerage house has analysed the impacts of recent global events on the Dhaka Stock Exchange and said the effect of the conflict is yet to unfold.

If the conflict escalates, higher global energy and food prices may lead to renewed inflationary pressure in Bangladesh and may affect the South Asian nation's external sector balance, it said.

However, it believes the impact on the external balance might be partly offset by remittance inflows and ongoing financing arrangements.

If the Strait of Hormuz faces blockades or increased risks, international freight costs may rise, increasing the cost of both imports and exports for all, BRAC EPL said in a special brief.

Shipping delays could disrupt production timelines, especially for export-focused industries.

Shipping costs for apparel exports may also rise if tensions in the Gulf lead to rerouted trade channels, which could affect Bangladesh's export competitiveness, it added.

"We expect the market to react cautiously, given that the current Iran-Israel war is on the brink of further escalation.

As Iran does not have strong trade ties with Bangladesh, business uncertainties will not be as high as they were for India and Pakistan," the report said.

"While a single-day impact may be moderate, we may see a delayed effect if Iran's response causes a shock to global oil supply," it added.

Based on past events, BRAC EPL expects Bangladesh's market to remain moderately resilient to global market fluctuations.

To present a broader view, the brokerage considered the impacts of seven global events that occurred between 2021 and this year.

It found that the prime index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, DSEX, gained 53.35 points on May 5, 2021, following the start of the Myanmar civil war. Over the next five days, the index rose by 2.9 percent or 161.67 points.

The Russia-Ukraine war, which began on February 24, 2022, had the biggest impact on Bangladesh's stock market, with the DSEX losing 109.23 points on the first day and 142.92 points over the next five days.

Three international conflicts in 2023 -- the Sudan civil war, Israel's war in Gaza, and ethnic violence in Manipur, Northeast India -- did not significantly affect the DSEX; rather, the index rose in the five days following each event.

Similarly, the index jumped over 30 points in the respective five-day periods in 2025, when conflicts between India and Pakistan, and between Iran and Israel, began.

The Indo-Pak conflict caused the DSEX to fall by 149.31 points on the first day, May 7 this year, but the index rebounded, gaining 33.19 points over the next five days.

The brokerage also noted that this is an evolving scenario, and a clearer picture would emerge once the stance of all sides becomes more visible.