Floods to affect rice acreage, production

Rice acreage and production in Bangladesh are likely to decline because of recent floods, which would affect paddy of the Aus and Aman seasons, said the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) at the end of last week.

The acreage of rice, the staple food, may come to reach 1.15 crore hectares of land in marketing year 2024-25, which began last May, which is 3.4 percent lower than the USDA's previous forecast of 1.19 crore hectares.

This may lead to a 2.4 percent drop in rice production to 3.68 crore tonnes, said the USDA in its grain and feed update on Bangladesh released yesterday.

The forecast comes at a time when rice prices are rising and traders are shying away from imports as import prices would be higher than the prices of coarse rice.

The floods that submerged eastern parts of the country last month may cause a reduction in Aman cultivation area by 3.4 percent to 57 lakh hectares

Bangladesh did not import any rice in fiscal year 2023-24, which ended last June.

Until September 3, which fall under the ongoing fiscal year of 2024-25, no rice has been imported.

Yesterday in Dhaka, retailers sold coarse rice at Tk 52 to Tk 55 per kilogramme (kg), up 2.88 percent from that a year ago, according to data compiled by the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB).

Prices of fine grains also edged up, it said.

The current prices of rice were higher than that a year ago.

Aus cultivation begins around the April-May period and is harvested around the August-September period whereas Aman cultivation begins in the August-September period and its harvests conclude in the November-December period.

However, due to changes in climate patterns, delayed monsoons and uneven distribution of rain, the rice growing seasons are now delayed in different parts of the country.

The US agency identifies Boro season rice as the first crop of a marketing year. The dry season crop is harvested in the April-May period.

During the current marketing year, the yield of Boro season paddy and production of the associated rice were very good amidst the absence of natural disasters, such as droughts, heatwaves, cyclones and pest outbreaks, said the agency.

Citing the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), it said total production of the rice stood at 2.05 crore tonnes this year.

The agency said it reduced the forecast for Aus acreage to 9 lakh hectares of land, down 18.2 percent from its previous estimate.

Accordingly, production is likely to drop 16 percent from 21 lakh tonnes, it said.

"This reduction is due to flash floods that occurred during June and early July," said the USDA.

"Heavy rains and water flowing from upstream regions in the northern part of Bangladesh caused flooding that damaged Aus rice fields in many areas of Sylhet and Mymensingh divisions," it said.

The USDA report said farmers were also showing a lack of interest in Aus rice cultivation as many farmers reported planting mustard followed by Boro rice, leaving insufficient time for Aus season rice.

It said high pest and insect infestations was another reason for farmers showing little interest to cultivate Aus season rice. A lack of good varieties of Aus season rice is another reason for the decline in cultivation, it added.

"While the DAE provides various incentives to farmers, including seeds and fertilisers, to encourage Aus rice cultivation, adoption remains very low," it said.

"Instead, they prefer cultivating Aman season rice," said the USDA.

However, the floods that submerged a vast part of the eastern part of the country last month may cause a reduction in Aman cultivation area by 3.4 percent to 57 lakh hectares.

The overall yield is forecasted to drop too due to severe flooding in several districts of Chattogram, Sylhet and Barishal during the third week of August, said the USDA.

From August 18-21, several districts in Chattogram, Barishal, and Sylhet divisions received heavy rain, leading to flooding in Feni, Noakhali, Cumilla, Lakshmipur, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, and Brahmanbaria districts, as well as landslides in Cox's Bazar district, it added.

Since August 20, 2024, heavy flow of water from the Indian highlands through the Muhuri, Kahua, Silonia, and Gumti rivers have caused devastating floods in Feni, Cumilla, and other adjacent eastern districts, it added.

The USDA, citing its rapid assessment, said the flood has damaged 2 lakh hectares of land containing Aman season saplings.

The agency said Aman season rice can usually be transplanted until September 15.

It said if the floodwaters recede and farmers receive enough seeds to prepare the seedbeds by August 31, some 10-15 percent of the Aman rice fields can be replanted by September 15.

The report said until the second week of August, most districts in Rangpur, Rajshahi, and Dhaka have completed Aman rice transplantation.

"This year, they received better rainfall compared to the past three years during seedbed preparation and transplantation. However, some farmers in these districts had to use partial irrigation," it said.

In other southern districts of Khulna and Barishal divisions, Aman rice transplantation is also underway.

Farmers in these southern districts typically start cultivating Aman rice about a month later due to weather and climatic conditions, such as waiting for seasonal floodwaters to recede, said the USDA.

These districts usually begin Aman transplantation in August and continue until mid-September, it added.