Russia looks beyond Donbas
Russia's military aims in Ukraine are no longer focused "only" on the country's east, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, adding that supplies of Western weapons had changed the Kremlin's calculus.
"The geography is different now. It is not only about the DNR and LNR, but also the Kherson region, the Zaporizhzhia region and a number of other territories" Lavrov told state media in an interview published yesterday. "This process is continuing, consistently and persistently."
The pro-Moscow breakaway so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DNR and LNR) are in east Ukraine. Moscow's forces already control the southern Kherson region and parts of the southeastern region Zaporizhzhia.
Lavrov said that while Moscow's aim remains the same -- "denazification and demilitarisation" of Ukraine -- the "geography" has changed since Istanbul talks between Moscow and Kyiv in March 2022.
He said Western supplies of weapons to Kyiv including US-made Himars missile systems had made Moscow review its plans.
Lavrov said Russia's "geographical aims will move even further from the current line" if the West continues to "pump" Ukraine with weapons, adding that it makes no sense to resume peace talks with Kyiv at the moment.
Russian forces shelled eastern and southern Ukraine yesterday after Washington said it saw signs Moscow was preparing to formally annex territory it has seized during nearly five months of war.
Five civilians were killed and 16 wounded by Russian shelling in the Donetsk region, while two civilians were killed by shelling in the city of Nikopol in the south, the respective Ukrainian regional governors said on Telegram.
Roman Starovoit, governor of Russia's Kursk region, which borders Ukraine, wrote on Telegram that Ukrainian forces had shelled a border crossing there.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, said Moscow would only ease the path for Black Sea exports of Ukrainian grain if the West lifts sanctions on Russia's shipments.
"We will facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain, but we are proceeding from the fact that all restrictions related to possible deliveries for the export of Russian grain will be lifted," he said after talks with both Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran on Tuesday night.
Uncertainty swirled over the planned restart of a huge Russian gas pipeline to Europe today, as Putin warned that its capacity could be further reduced due to slow progress in equipment maintenance.
The West has accused Russia of using its energy supplies as a tool of coercion. Russia denies those accusations, saying it has been a reliable energy supplier.
Setting out its emergency plan, the EU yesterday told members states to cut gas usage by 15 percent until March as part of an emergency plan.
"We believe that a full disruption is likely and it is especially likely if we don't act and leave ourselves vulnerable to it," one EU official said.
Last year, Russia represented 40 percent of the EU's total gas imports and any further disruption to supply would also push consumer prices higher and raise the risk of a deep recession.
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