A new beginning for France?

The first round of the French presidential election was on April 23, 2017. This time the opinion polls were right and the results came out as predicted. Out of 11 candidates only two candidates have qualified for the second round of voting scheduled for May 7. Almost 70 percent of the 47 million registered voters cast their ballots. The two anti-establishment winners are Emmanuel Macron, who got 23.9 percent of the votes, and Marine Le Pen with 21.4 percent.

The election is being held under a state of emergency that was proclaimed after the November 13, 2015 attack on Bataclan Theatre in which 130 people were killed. Then on April 20, 2017 a French police officer was killed in a shooting on Champs Élysées following which thousands of policemen were deployed across the country to tighten security for the election.

According to French election laws a candidate getting more than 50 percent of votes in the first round becomes the president without having to go to the second round. Since in the first round there are several candidates, the votes are split in percentage terms. Thus a second round is called for the top two winners of the first round. The investiture of the new president will take place on or before May 14, 2017, the last day of tenure of François Hollande.

Macron, 39, the youngest independent candidate since Napoleon, was economy minister under President François Hollande. He resigned last year and launched his centrist political movement En Marche! (On the Move!). Macron never held any elected post and is considered a greenhorn to the nasty intrigues of French politics. He argues he can rejuvenate the morbid French economy with his pro-European and pro-business policies. His support base comes from young urban progressives. Though he was a member of the Socialist Party he now claims to be neither liberal nor "Hollandist" (follower of François Hollande). Macron declared that, if elected, he will be the president of all French people.

Marine Le Pen, 49, leading the far-right Front National (FN), attracted much attention during this election because of her Europhobia among other things. Le Pen became popular with voters for her strong anti-Euro, anti-immigrant and anti-globalisation platform. She has been touting slogans such as "French interest first", similar to Donald Trump's "America first". Member of the European Parliament, Marine Le Pen, who faces allegations of campaign financing (from Russia?) and fraudulent payments from European Parliament, claims that open borders and globalisation are the reasons behind France's socio-economic calamity. Le Pen announced she is the people's candidate for the presidency.

The biggest setback was for the two major parties – Socialists and Republicans – which have ruled France alternatively since WWII. Neither Republican François Fillon (19.9 percent votes), the centre-right conservative, nor Socialist Benoît Hamon (6.35 percent votes), the centre-left candidate, got through the first round.

The second round of intense campaigning has already begun, amid reports of violent protests and vandalism in Paris, with each candidate spelling out diametrically opposed platforms. Two issues however will dominate the run-up to May 7 – EU membership of France and the state of French economy. Macron is focused on the economy, while Le Pen is trying to convince voters that EU has harmed France.  

Deeply divided French voters consider politicians to be thoroughly corrupt. Voters rejected the established politicians and are looking for an alternative to the status quo. People seem to be more concerned about the economy and trustworthiness of politicians rather than immigration or terrorism. 

It was rather unusual that President Hollande, alarmed at Le Pen's popularity, called upon French voters to support Macron, as the values and principles on which France stands are threatened by the far-right candidate's rhetoric. Similar endorsements for Macron also came from Fillon, Hamon and others. A media campaign has also started to stop Le Pen from getting into the Élysée Palace.

But the most fascinating phase has yet to unfold in French politics. It is the upcoming French parliamentary elections that are due in June. The new president has to form a government headed by a prime minister. The president can choose anyone as PM, but normally the leader of the majority party in the parliament is chosen as PM. Assuming Macron makes it to the Élysée Palace and given the fact that he does not represent any political party, who will be his PM? Will he pick someone from the majority party, who may represent a different political persuasion – a Socialist or a Republican – presuming that one of these parties gets a majority in the parliamentary election? Picking a PM from outside the parliament will complicate Macron's job as the PM may not be able to command loyalty in the parliament to get legislation passed. Will Macron then opt for cohabitation?

France has had two instances of cohabitation. The first was under Socialist President François Mitterrand when Republican Jacques Chirac became Prime Minister in 1986. The second instance was when President Jacques Chirac appointed Socialist Lionel Jospin as Prime Minister in 1997. It was a novel political arrangement when the president appointed a prime minister from an opposing party and ran the government quite successfully. It was not a coalition form of government but cohabitation, meaning two different political ideologies existing side-by-side within the government.

Interestingly, European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker congratulated pro-EU Macron for making it to the second round. Brussels sighed in relief as they would not have to worry about Frexit.  

The second round for Le Pen will actually be a referendum on Frexit. If people vote in the same numbers, Emmanuel Macron is likely to win the second round. But there can always be a slip between the cup and the lip. Assuming Macron wins, will that usher in a new beginning for the Fifth Republic?

The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.