Elections and the Ershad factor

Contrasting speculations linger over the Rangpur mayoral election results. Was the poll "stage-managed" or was it a "calculated game"? Awami League and Jatiya Party, having been broadly on the same side of the political spectrum, means that a JP win could cut both ways: Cushioning against AL nominee's defeat, dividing votes to seal BNP candidate's debacle; and secondly, getting a signal across that a credible election is possible under the incumbent government. In the process, a "model election" was held by the Election Commission adding to a previous list of city corporation polls in which ruling party-backed candidates had lost.

Jatiya Party nominee Mostafizar Rahman's highly convincing victory at the Rangpur mayoral election, however, appeared diluted by the party contestants' share of the councillors' posts. The JP mayor-designate bagged only two councillor posts in contrast to Awami League's 18 councillors and BNP's eight only. Clearly, and meaningfully, the equation at the working level is tilted towards the ruling party.

An election atmosphere has started gathering momentum revolving around the by-election to Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC) falling due after the premature death of Annisul Huq. The Election Commission is known to be working towards conducting DNCC mayoral by-election and the vote for 18 new councillors each for Dhaka North and South City corporations by the last week of February.

There are complications with regard to new councillors' election to be tied up with the mayoral by-election. The points at issue are: What will be the tenure of the councillors to be elected to the new wards? Would voters of the new wards be eligible for vote in the mayoral by-election? These questions will have to be sorted out before the polls. If, as the EC has reportedly given to understand, that the term of the new councillors will have ended with the end of corporation's tenure, legal complications might arise, according to experts.

After the Rangpur polls, Dhaka mayoral by-election is poised to be a pivotal test case for the ruling party. Dhaka is the nerve-centre of national politics, a win or loss here is likely to impact, one way or the other, the shape of things in store for the major political parties.

It is going to be a highly charged, defining contest. Business leaders, politicians, even cultural figures have shown their interest to participate; but the AL chief has understandably given a go-ahead to Atiqul Islam, a business leader. He has already started his campaign.

From the BNP side, Tabith Awal, son of Abdul Awal Mintoo, is the most likely choice. He had polled 3.25 lakh votes against AL candidate Annisul Huq's 4.6 lakh votes before he withdrew from the race in the afternoon alleging "intimidation and false voting."

In this context, one may not be surprised if an ambitious Ershad, buoyed up by the success in Rangpur, throws his party's hat in the ring for the DNCC poll. Even though his choice in Dhaka is limited. For Ershad's constituency has been regarded to be limited to northern districts.

Perhaps his party's triumph in Rangpur City Corporation election has strengthened his bargaining power in national politics. Keeping the 2019 general election in front, Ershad may once again be a "trump card", rather than a third factor between two fiercely rivalling major political parties—the AL and BNP.

The AL government in 1996 was formed with the support of JP. By taking part in January 5, 2014 non-participative AL-held general election, Ershad's party, with its Naziur and Manzur splinter groups, gave a stamp of legitimacy to the controversial polls and their results.

A history of elections in 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2008 reveals why JP's electoral strength played a catalytic role between the major political forces, either directly or indirectly.

A table of comparisons speaks for itself: In the February 1991 election BNP bagged 140 seats to AL's 88 and JP's 35; In 1996, AL got 146 seats, BNP secured 116 and JP got 32 seats; in the 2001 election, BNP tallied 193 seats to AL's 62 and JP's 14 (plus JP Naziur's 4 and Manzur's 1); and in the 2008 election, the grand alliance led by AL obtained 230 seats compared to the four-party alliance led by BNP's 30 seats while JP got 27 seats. In terms of the share of votes, JP's best showing was 16.4 percent in 1996 and the leanest was in 2001 with 7.22 percent.

In the present context, the survivalist Ershad is aiming to be a revivalist. And, he is sought after. Recently, BNP secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam said, "In future, BNP's alliance with JP cannot be ruled out." AL general secretary Obaidul Kadir was cryptic saying, "Time hasn't arrived yet to hear the last word from Ershad."

Only time will tell whether Ershad, the Palli Bandhu and Raja of Rangpur to his loyalists, can widen his image at his age.

Shah Husain Imam is adjunct faculty at East West University, a commentator in current affairs, and former associate editor at The Daily Star.

Email: shahhusainimam@gmail.com