Mueller investigation and Trump's turbulent new year
For the last couple of years or so, the special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation of the possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign to influence the 2016 US Presidential Election has been in steady media limelight. Never before had any US Presidential Election been suspected of being targeted by any foreign government. Although Mueller has been extremely circumspect, and carefully avoided media, some commentators think that he may have found a lot. President Trump is reportedly very worried. Those who have followed this issue must be watching with an intoxicated interest what will surface once the investigation concludes. It is in order here to briefly recapitulate some key aspects of the Mueller investigation.
Attorney General Jeff Sessions (who resigned recently), a one-time close associate of Trump, recused himself from supervising the investigation after his dubious meeting with the Russian ambassador during the campaign became known. His Deputy Rod Rosenstein appointed Robert Mueller as Special Counsel. Mueller was a former FBI director with a reputation for competence and a bipartisan respect for his integrity. Interestingly, he is a Republican. As a Princeton graduate, his academic background is formidable. A highly decorated Marine Corps officer, he served in Vietnam. His career was mostly spent in the Justice Department, where he supervised major prosecutions. George W Bush appointed him FBI director. His performance won such acclaim that the Senate unanimously extended his 10-year term by two years in 2011.
While continuing to conduct the investigation, Mueller was flawlessly circumspect, and refrained from making public statements. His mandate was to investigate any link or coordination between the Russian government and the Trump campaign. He enjoyed a lot of independence, more than Ken Star who acted as Special Counsel during Bill Clinton's impeachment
Mueller proceeded with great efficiency and resolution. On at least a couple of occasions, his action produced shock and awe. On July 26, 2017, the FBI with a search warrant raided the Alexandria home of Paul Manafort, former Trump campaign chairman. The raid was conducted on strong evidence of financial criminality (Manafort was a highly-paid foreign consultant), and brought up a trove of incriminating papers on his financial wrong doings. Considering Manafort's closeness with Trump, the incumbent President, it was a daring act and a sign that Mueller meant business. Trump expressed unhappiness. Indeed he has several times called the Mueller probe a witch-hunt.Mueller has indicted 32 people and three Russian firms. Notable among those indicted are Paul Manafort, Trump's long-term business partner and Rick Gates, hid Deputy Campaign Chief on charges of conspiracy against the US, witness tampering, conspiracy to obstruct justice, and obstruction of justice. Michael Flynn, National Security adviser on charges of making false statements to the Special Counsel. President Trump's long-term friends and allies Michael Cohen and Roger Stone were indicted on charges of making false statements to the Special Counsel's office. Gru, the Russian Intelligence Directorate, was indicted on charges of hacking of Democratic National Committee to facilitate social media influence.
On January 25, at 6 in the early morning, the FBI arrested Roger Stone, a long-term Trump associate from his Fort Lauderdale house. Stone was connected with the Trump campaign all along. He informed Trump that Wikileaks had information that would be damaging to Hillary Clinton's campaign. As CNN footage showed, his arrest was in the cover of darkness. FBI operatives were in protective gear as if ready to confront any violent resistance.Noted legal analyst of CNN Jeffrey Toobin observed that the scene was "very shocking". Toobin also said that Stone had an aggressive track record and had taunted the Mueller investigation. According to the Washington Post, the arrest of Stone raises a fundamentally important question: Did Trump or those who assisted his campaign seek the help of an adversarial nation, Russia, to win the election?
The Mueller investigation appears to be taking on an ominous aspect for Trump at a time when things are going badly on other fronts. After initially showing a hard-line posture on his demand for 5.7 billion dollars for his Mexican wall pledged during the campaign, and shutting down the government for the longest period in US history, he capitulated ignominiously and reopened the government without getting any concession from the House Democrats. The new year has so far been quite bereft of much cheer.
One thing that seems to be above any debate is that Trump's handling of his business interest with Russia has been inept. If he had any Presidential ambition early on, he ought to have been discreet. His interest in building a Trump Tower in Moscow may have left him exposed to exploitation by the Russians. In media, there has been recurrent discussion on why he has been always chary of saying anything critical of Putin. The meeting of Paul Manafort and Trump's son in-law Jared Kushner with some Russians, notably the lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, in Trump Tower in New York was fodder forall kinds of damaging speculation. The Russian connection has become an albatross on his neck.
An inescapable question is if so many of his close associates have been indicted, how seriously is he compromised? Trump has been a businessman. His tryst with politics started with the 2016 Presidential Election he won. Looking at political issues through the lens of a businessman, it would seem now, has frequently got him into messy situations.
After his advent to the White House, his method has been to push his executive authority to limits few Presidents tried before. He has done this ruthlessly, until his method failed to work. Over the government shut down, he miscalculated and had to cave in. He got no concession from the Democratic controlled Congress. The Speaker Nancy Pelosi gave him a humiliating lesson on his limits of power. He dismissed Comey , but it only compounded his problem. Initially, he threatened to get Mueller fired but found that the Justice Department will not oblige him. And he has now discovered that after midterm take-over of the Congress by the Democrats, his presidency is going to be a rough ride.
Ziaus Shams Chowdhury is a former Ambassador.
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