Aung Suu Kyi's next round

In a rare interview recently, Myanmar's commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing told the BBC that the military will not step back from politics until a peace deal is reached with all Myanmar's ethnic armed groups. However, the army will respect the results of the general elections. Out of 491 parliamentary seats being contested, the results for 444 seats have been announced so far. Suu Kyi's party, the NLD, won 348 seats. The military government party USDP won only 40 seats. This means Aung Suu Kyi led the NLD to a thumping victory. About 10,000 election observers from the US, Japan and the EU blanketed the country to oversee the elections.

However, this election victory, if and when made official, will not immediately translate to the crowning of the democracy icon Aung Suu Kyi or her party the NLD. The Myanmar army still stands by its call for 'disciplined democracy'. In the meantime in the last three years the army has equipped itself with sophisticated arms, aircrafts and weapon systems. The current Myanmar constitution mandates a 25 percent military representation in Parliament. These seats are occupied by military personnel who are not elected but appointed. Myanmar citizens are calling for clause 436 to be amended; the clause requires a 75 percent vote in parliament to amend most sections of the constitution which is practically impossible for the opposition to achieve. So ultimately, the formation of an acceptable democratic government will depend on the speed and degree to which the army is willing to allow its autonomous role to be undermined or terminated. Even the army will not allow anyone to amend the constitution as it holds the seats to prevent any such amendment.

Events in Myanmar are now moving swiftly. Aung Suu Kyi has already written to the military powers seeking dialogue on key issues. To what extent this call will be heard by the military is anyone's guess. Yet the army has already welcomed the outcome of the present elections. The political party that the ex-generals had floated has also conceded defeat. By all estimates the generals seem to be setting the stage for their own exit.

Although much of Suu Kyi's success is a democratic milestone, there are still dark clouds in the horizon. The elections are just a start. A difficult transition awaits Myanmar. The country's transition from an isolated military dictatorship to a more open and democratic society is fraught with pitfalls.

Let us, therefore, enumerate the challenges that still confront Suu Kyi in the coming days. First, the present constitution will not allow her to occupy the post of the President of Myanmar. This is because it bars anyone whose family member holds foreign citizenship. Suu Kyi's sons have British citizenship. So she stands barred from occupying the post. Suu Kyi is likely to side step this bar by saying that the new President would be someone who will follow her orders from behind. In fact, he would be a nominal President.

But the troubles do not end there. Three crucial ministries under the constitution are headed by the army. These are the ministries of defence, home and border affairs. This is highly unacceptable. Aung Suu Kyi has dismissed these provisions in the constitution as 'very silly'. But this means she has to work closely with the army generals and seek to take away these provisions and restore all the posts for the civilian government.

The question that boggles everyone's mind now is this: how does Suu Kyi expect to garner support for her quest for Myanmar's democratic transition if the generals remain recalcitrant?

Perhaps the answer lies in her ability to mobilise the ethnic groups and political parties to support her quest for true democracy. Out of the many ethnic groups in the country, only eight have agreements with the present army-run government. If Suu Kyi can woo them all or a majority to lay down their arms and stand behind her ideals, she can take the hot air that the army blows and quench their thirst for blood. This then could also lead to the solution of the Rohingya problem. It is well-known that Rohingyas are Myanmar citizens but many were denied their citizenship rights ever since the first army takeover of Myanmar back in 1962. Slowly but surely these people were denied their right of abode, the right to work and even to marry. Through a systematic process of exclusion, these people became stateless and were forced to leave for Bangladesh or other neighbouring countries. Today, several thousands still live in Bangladesh in camps along our border and even inside the country, posing as Bangladeshi citizens. Many more thousands have obtained Bangladeshi passports illegally and are working in the Middle East. There are hundreds who have also taken to the open seas to cross over to neighbouring countries but have drowned in the process. A humanitarian crisis has been created in this part of the world due to this. The US and the EU have berated the Myanmar government. But international pressure is likely to grow on Suu Kyi who now has an overwhelming majority in the parliamentary elections. Ethnic groups like the Rohingyas and myriad others can perhaps help Suu Kyi to have the constitutional bars removed.

The bottom line is that Suu Kyi has to extend a warm hand to the army and negotiate deftly with them now that she has a huge electoral mandate and the support of many ethnic groups including the armed ones. She has to manage the surge of support that she has brought forth. The international community is indeed likely to stand behind her too. The army may then be seen to be faulting, unable to restrain the rising support. However, Suu Kyi has time to consolidate her position -- the next few months, up until the beginning of 2016, though her options are limited. With credible steps the Nobel Laureate will be able to turn the tables in her favour. And the world will be watching Myanmar with bated breath.

The writer is a former Ambassador and a commentator on critical issues. E-mail: ashfaque303@gmail.com